Limerick, Saturday 11 July 2026: Tips & Selections

Limerick, Saturday 11 July 2026: Tips & Selections

A sunny seven-race card at Limerick on firm ground sets up nicely for the speed horses and those proven on quick surfaces. Dylan Browne McMonagle holds the key course jockey stat here — 23% winners at the track with an A/E of 1.29 — so anything he sits on warrants close attention. R P Cody’s 21% course strike rate with a healthy A/E of 1.47 is also worth filing away. Three races stand out as genuinely bettable, and there is a clear NAP on the card.

7:30 — Conference & Banqueting Facilities At Limerick Median Auction Fillies Maiden (1m4½f)

Selection: Nellcote (5/2, Boyle Sports/Betfred/LiveScore Bet)

J P O’Brien has gone 10 from 64 in the last 14 days, which is a yard ticking over nicely, and he saddles Nellcote here with Dylan Browne McMonagle in the plate. That pairing alone makes this filly the one to beat. McMonagle’s 23% course win rate at Limerick is the best of any jockey in the data, and when O’Brien sends him out on a debutant with a fourth last time out suggesting there is a performance lurking, you take notice. Nellcote has shown she stays, she handles this type of surface, and McMonagle will know exactly how to ride a mile and a half on a quick track.

Stellar Moment is the market leader at 15/8 and deserves respect — the yard has runners landing here — but a form line of 6-3 in a small sample and a trainer running at 0/3 over the past fortnight tempers the enthusiasm. Miss Romagna at 7/2 is the other realistic challenger. Nellcote at 5/2 with the elite jockey booking is the call.

5:25 — Party Time And Limerick Motor Centre Rated Race (6½f)

Selection: Apache Outlaw Each-Way (4/1, Boyle Sports/Betfred/LiveScore Bet)

Eleven runners, firm ground, and a field where the top-rated horse on sectional data is available at 4/1. Apache Outlaw carries an internal rating of 87, the highest figure in this line-up, and has kept competitive across his last six starts without adding to his tally. The third tucked in there confirms he finds the line, and his track speed figure of 82 stands up well against rivals who are all operating at lower grades on the figures.

Adrian McGuinness has been running at 2/30 over the past fortnight — low strike rate, granted — but Apache Outlaw from stall 1 on the inside rail on firm ground is the horse in this race who looks easiest to make a case for at the price. He’s drawn to travel close to the pace and his top-rating in the field is being ignored by the market in favour of Send Harry and Clonmacash, both rated below him. Each-way at 4/1 in an 11-runner field with three places paid makes sense.

8:30 — Private Suites At Limerick Racecourse Handicap (1m4½f)

Selection: Hassaniya (9/2, Boyle Sports/Betfred/LiveScore Bet)

Six runners, firm ground, and a horse whose internal rating of 86 is streets ahead of an official mark of 69. That kind of gap between how a horse is rated by the assessor and how the sharp data assesses him is exactly the kind of angle worth pressing. Hassaniya’s form reads 3rd, 5th, 4th and 8th but within those efforts he has been consistently competitive, and an official mark that looks well behind his actual ability is the key here.

Themis won last time out but carries a rating of only 71 and a speed figure of 63 that is well below the top end of this field. Maxminelli is the 9/4 favourite and Henry De Bromhead is flying at 11 from 33 over the past fortnight, so he cannot be ignored, but at 9/4 versus 9/2 for a horse with a 17-point advantage on the internal figures, Hassaniya represents the clear value play. M D O’Callaghan has gone 2 from 14 in the last 14 days, which is ticking along fine. If the rating gap translates to the track, Hassaniya wins this comfortably.

Today’s NAP

Hassaniya — Private Suites At Limerick Racecourse Handicap (8:30, Limerick)
Odds: 9/2 — Boyle Sports (others: 9/2 Betfred, 9/2 LiveScore Bet)

An internal rating of 86 against an official handicap mark of 69 is a 17-point discrepancy that screams value in a six-runner field. Hassaniya has run respectably in every start bar one, stays this trip, and is being sent off at more than twice the price of the Maxminelli, who holds no meaningful edge on the figures. Firm ground suits progressive three-year-olds stepping up in class, and at 9/2 this looks overpriced against the data.