Liverpool vs Brentford Betting Tips 2026

Final Day at Anfield

This is the last game of the 2025/26 Premier League season, and Anfield gets a proper send-off. Mohamed Salah and Andy Robertson are both starting their farewell home appearances, Alisson is back between the sticks, and there’s genuine emotion running through this fixture. That matters, because emotionally charged last-day games at a full Anfield can produce strange results, but they also tend to produce goals.

Liverpool sit fifth on 59 points with nothing left to play for in terms of title or relegation. Arne Slot’s side have been patchy of late, losing away at Aston Villa 2-4 and Manchester United 2-3 in recent outings, with a 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea sandwiched in between. They’ve shipped 10 goals across their last five matches, which tells you the defensive solidity that defined earlier in the campaign has clearly softened. Still, 10 scored in that same run shows the attacking quality remains.

Brentford arrive at Anfield in ninth on 52 points, Keith Andrews’ side also with nothing riding on this. A 3-0 loss at Manchester City followed by a 2-2 draw at home to Crystal Palace sums up where they are: capable of beating teams around them, but struggling for consistency against anyone above mid-table. They’ve conceded seven goals in their last five, so this is not a defence in commanding form.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record over recent seasons strongly favours Liverpool. They won 2-0 at Griffin Park and 3-0 at Anfield in 2023/24, and thumped Brentford 4-1 at Griffin Park in February 2024. The one blemish came in October 2025, when Brentford won 3-2 at home in what was a rare away day result for the Bees. Liverpool won the reverse fixture earlier in the 2025/26 season, taking a 2-0 victory at Griffin Park in January. Goals flow freely in this matchup, and Liverpool’s home dominance in these encounters is hard to ignore.

Team News and Injuries

Liverpool are without Hugo Ekitike, their top scorer with 11 goals this season, after he picked up an Achilles tendon injury. That is a significant absence. Conor Bradley is also out with a knee problem, as is Stefan Bajcetic. The positive news is Alisson returns in goal, and both Salah and Robertson are confirmed starters for what will be emotional farewells to Anfield.

For Brentford, Fabio Carvalho is out with a knee injury, Rico Henry misses out with a muscle problem, and Angelo Milambo is also unavailable. Igor Thiago, who has been remarkable this season with 22 goals in 37 appearances, leads the line and will be Brentford’s primary threat.

Goals Markets

Both of these sides have been leaking goals in recent weeks. Liverpool have scored and conceded 10 each across their last five, while Brentford have shipped seven in theirs. Add in the emotional occasion at a full Anfield, a farewells atmosphere that tends to push teams forward, and H2H history that consistently delivers goals, and you’re looking at a game that has Over 2.5 written all over it. The price of 1.4 reflects that reality, so if you’re purely chasing goals, the value is limited there. Under 2.5 at 2.8 feels like a gamble against the evidence rather than a contrarian pick with legs.

The Betting Angle

Liverpool at 1.88 is the obvious pick. Anfield farewell for Salah, a full house, home form of W10 D5 L3, and a Brentford side that has lost 10 away games this season. Keith Andrews’ team have won six on the road all campaign and arrive with nothing to play for beyond pride. The visitors have conceded heavily away from home, and without Carvalho and Henry, the defensive unit is lighter than usual.

Ekitike’s absence hurts, but Salah is starting. He has seven goals and six assists this season, and on a day like this, with the Kop saying goodbye, he is going to be motivated. Gakpo has chipped in with seven goals as well, and the attacking depth is still there even without their leading scorer.

The Poisson model gives Liverpool a 45% win probability against Brentford’s 10%, and while that models as lean value at 1.88, the contextual factors here push it further in Liverpool’s favour. This is a home side playing a farewell match, motivated emotionally in a way that pure form tables can’t capture.

If you want a longer price, Igor Thiago at 7.0 as first goalscorer is not without merit given his 22-goal season, but the main bet is straightforward. Mohamed Salah at 5.5 to score first on his Anfield farewell is the sentimental and statistically reasonable side play.