Manchester City 
Southampton FA Cup Semi-Final: Manchester City vs Southampton โ Wembley, 25 April 2026
City arrive at Wembley in the kind of form that should make every other FA Cup semi-finalist quietly relieved they're not the ones facing them. Four wins from five, a 4-0 demolition of Liverpool in the quarter-finals, and a squad that's rolling. Southampton, meanwhile, are flying in the Championship and got here by beating Arsenal in the last round. Respect due. But this is a different planet.
Form
Manchester City's recent run reads: wins over Arsenal twice, Chelsea, and Liverpool, with their only blemish a 2-1 home loss to Real Madrid in the Champions League. Even in that defeat they scored. Across their last five they've put 12 goals away and conceded just three. The Chelsea result away from home, 3-0, is particularly eye-catching. The system is clicking.
Southampton's form in the Championship has been excellent. Five wins from five in the league, including a 5-1 thrashing away at Wrexham and a 3-0 home win over Blackburn. They're scoring freely too, 14 goals in their last five games. The concern is obvious though: this is Championship football. Bristol City held them to a 2-2 draw at St Mary's Stadium, and that's the level they've been tested at. City are something else entirely.
Worth flagging: Southampton beat Arsenal 2-1 to get here. That deserves genuine credit. But Arsenal have looked unreliable in cup football this season, and City beat that same Arsenal side 2-1 at the Etihad Stadium and 2-0 away in the League Cup. So the Saints' biggest scalp doesn't quite shine as bright when you hold it up to the light.
Head-to-Head
The recent head-to-head record is City-dominated. They won 4-0 at the Etihad Stadium in October 2022 and beat Southampton 1-4 at St Mary's Stadium in April 2023. The most recent league meeting, last season in May, ended 0-0 on Southampton's ground, but they were already relegated by then. The only result that goes Southampton's way is a League Cup win at St Mary's Stadium back in January 2023. Cup football can throw up surprises, but the weight of this record points one way.
Team News and Key Players
Both squads are expected to be fully available for this one, with no injury concerns to report heading into the semi-final.
There is a note on Rodri. News from the past few days suggests he's dealing with a groin issue and his return timeline is unclear after missing the Burnley fixture. City have managed without him for stretches this season, and their form hasn't collapsed. But at a Wembley semi-final, you'd want him fit. Keep an eye on team news closer to kick-off.
In terms of goals, Erling Haaland has 3 goals in just 2 appearances in this competition this season. That's the kind of rate that ends matches early. R. Lewis has chipped in with 2 goals and 1 assist in 2 apps, and A. Semenyo has 2 goals and 2 assists in 4 appearances. City have depth and quality throughout the attacking third.
Southampton's top scorer in the cup is R. Stewart with 2 goals in 3 appearances. Solid for a Championship side. Against City's defensive structure, finding space is going to be the challenge, not the quality of the finisher.
The Betting Angle
City are 1.24 to win this, which reflects how heavily they're expected to come through. That price won't appeal to everyone. But Over 2.5 Goals at 1.41 is where the real value sits if you're looking for something with a bit more meat on it.
City have scored 12 in five games. Southampton have scored 14. Both sides like to play forward, and City in particular will not be sitting on this. Haaland, Lewis, and Semenyo in attack, against a side playing two divisions below? The goals should come. Southampton's attacking instincts will likely leave gaps at the back, and City will punish them.
City to win is the sensible call though. There's a reason they're 1.24. The gap in class is real, the form is real, and Wembley is a stage this squad has been on many times before.
Odds: 1.24 โ Ladbrokes
City have won four of their last five across all competitions, including a 4-0 destruction of Liverpool in the quarter-finals of this same competition. Southampton are in excellent Championship form but they're stepping into a completely different level of football at Wembley. Rodri's fitness is worth monitoring, but even without him, this City squad has the quality to handle this with relative comfort.