Market Rasen, Tuesday 14 April: Tips and Selections
Three races on the Market Rasen card deserve serious attention today. Good ground is forecast throughout, which becomes a crucial filter when you look at the form closely. Nicky Richards is operating at a remarkable 9/11 strike rate over the last fortnight, and that yard stat alone is worth keeping front of mind as you read what follows.
2:10 โ First Past The Post At CopyBet Mares' Maiden Hurdle (2mยฝf)
Diamonds Galore is the obvious selection at 8/13 (Bet365, William Hill, Betfred) and, while the price is short, the case for backing her is hard to argue against. Nicky Henderson has had five winners from 24 runners over the last 14 days, a yard ticking along nicely, and this mare has been consistently placed in novice hurdle company all season. Three runner-up finishes before a handicap debut at Ludlow where she only narrowly lost with the front two clear of the rest tells you she is operating well above this level. The pulled-up run in a valuable series final last month is worth a line through given the context, and returning to forecast good ground at a track that should suit is exactly the scenario connections want.
The only caveat: at 8/13, the stakes need to reflect the short price. This is a bankers bet, not a value punt. Treat it accordingly.
2:45 โ Safer Gambling At CopyBet Maiden Hurdle (2m4ยฝf)
Plains Drifter at 7/4 (William Hill, Coral) is the selection, and there is a genuine case he should be shorter. Fergal O'Brien's yard is running at 8/32 over the last 14 days, which represents a solid clip, and Jonathan Burke takes the ride. Crucially, this horse finished second to a subsequent Grade 2 winner over this course and distance on his hurdle debut in December. He came back here last month and ran respectably again. Course form at Market Rasen on good ground, a more experienced horse now than he was in December, and up against a market leader in Jimmy Hurdstrom whose form string of 2-2453 suggests he finds ways to get beaten.
Tom Lacey's gelding is favourite at 10/11 and holds obvious claims, but the form trajectory does not scream now is the day. Plains Drifter's C&D form is the decisive factor here, and 7/4 looks the right side of fair.
5:05 โ Book Summer Plate Ladies Day Today Mares' Novices' Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (2m5ยฝf)
Ruby Island Each-Way at 6/1 (Bet365, Coral) is the bet of the race, and the Nicky Richards yard stat is the first thing you look at. Nine winners from 11 runners in the last 14 days is a scorching level of form. Trainers running at that strike rate at this point in the season are placing horses with care and confidence, and Ruby Island fits the profile of a horse they have mapped out a specific target for.
The form angle stacks up independently of the trainer stats. She was a respectable third behind Jasmine Bliss in the Huntingdon Listed contest back in February, then went to a match race at Haydock last month and won it comfortably. The key line from the form book is this: she is 7lb better off with Jasmine Bliss today compared to that Huntingdon meeting. Jasmine Bliss opened her chasing account in Listed company and was then second in a Grade 2 at Kempton, so the form is solid, but the weight turnaround is significant and Ruby Island has clearly improved since that February meeting.
Danny McMenamin comes north with Richards' horses regularly and knows the partnership. Good ground at Market Rasen over 2m5f suits a horse who has won on good to soft and is clearly going the right way. At 6/1 each-way with three places on offer at 1/5, this is a genuinely competitive each-way bet in a field of eight.
Molto Bene at 4/1 (Bet365) deserves a mention. She was only narrowly beaten by a next-time-out winner at Leicester last month, has two chase wins to her name already, and Charlie Longsdon's yard has had a quiet two weeks but the horse's own form warrants respect. She could easily place at the very least.
Jasmine Bliss at 10/3 (Bet365) is fair enough market leader, but the weight swing to Ruby Island makes her less appealing at that price than she might appear at first glance.
Today's NAP
Odds: 6/1 โ Bet365 (others: 6/1 Coral, 7.8 Betfair Exchange)
Nicky Richards firing at 9/11 over the last 14 days is the context, but the race angle stands entirely on its own. Ruby Island is 7lb better off with Jasmine Bliss versus Huntingdon in February, she has since won a Haydock match race comfortably, and she steps up slightly in trip to 2m5f on good ground at a track that suits her profile. This is a horse going in the right direction at peak yard form, and 6/1 is a generous price for a horse who should be fighting out the finish.
Each-Way Recommended โ 3 places at 1/5 odds