Major
The azaleas are in bloom, the Masters champions are gathering, and Augusta National is ready to crown its 2026 winner. Rory McIlroy returns as defending champion after finally securing that elusive Green Jacket last April, but the Northern Irishman faces a stacked field hungry to claim golf's most prestigious prize. With the course playing at 7,510 yards and greens expected to run at 13 on the Stimpmeter, precision iron play and touch around the lightning-fast putting surfaces will separate contenders from also-rans. Amen Corner looms large as always, and this year's champion will need to navigate those treacherous holes without dropping shots when Sunday arrives.
Outright Favourites
Scottie Scheffler heads the market at 6/1 with PointsBet, and those odds look fair rather than generous. BonusDevil's ratings give him a 12% chance of victory, implying 7/1, so there's minimal value at the current price. What's undeniable is his course fit for Augusta National. The world number one's iron play remains the sharpest in professional golf, and on a layout that demands accurate approaches into treacherous pin positions, that's worth its weight in gold. His 53% probability of a top-10 finish suggests he'll be in the mix come Sunday, even if the win doesn't materialise. The 92% cut certainty makes him a rock-solid anchor for multiples, though the outright price doesn't excite at current odds.
Jon Rahm sits at 11/1 with BetMGM and Bovada, with Pinnacle stretching to 11.34/1. We have him at 7.1% to win, around 13/1 implied, so there's a smidgen of value in those double-digit odds. The Spaniard's ball-striking prowess and competitive fire make him a perennial threat at Augusta, where the premium on controlled aggression suits his game perfectly. A 42% top-10 probability underlines his consistency, and with an 88% chance of making the weekend, he's another safe selection for accumulators. The question is whether 11/1 offers enough meat on the bone for an outright punt when our numbers suggest he should be closer to 13/1.
Rory McIlroy wears the Green Jacket this week, and the bookies have him at 13/1 with BetOnline and Unibet, though Betcris pushes to 13.5/1. Our analysis puts him at a 6.2% chance, implying 15/1, which makes that 13.5/1 price look skinny. Defending major champions face immense pressure, and while McIlroy's class is beyond question, the market hasn't given him enough breathing room for value hunters. His 37% top-10 probability suggests he'll feature on the leaderboard, but at these odds, we'd want closer to 16/1 or 18/1 to get excited about backing the defending champion.
Each-Way Value
Matt Fitzpatrick at 23.5/1 with DraftKings offers genuine each-way appeal. Each-Way — We rate him at 4.3% to win, around 22/1 implied, so that 23.5/1 represents a sliver of value. More importantly, his 32% top-10 probability and 85% cut certainty make him an excellent each-way proposition at a quarter the odds for five places. The Englishman's precise iron play and tidy short game suit Augusta's demands, and while he lacks the raw power of some rivals, accuracy off the tee matters more than distance on this layout. Betcris and BetOnline offer 22.5/1 and 22.52/1 respectively, but DraftKings' 23.5/1 is the one to take.
Tommy Fleetwood remains one of the most underrated ball-strikers in world golf, and 25/1 with Bovada looks generous for a player we rate at 4.1% (24/1 implied). Each-Way — That slight edge over market expectations, combined with a 32% top-10 chance and 85% cut probability, makes him a compelling each-way selection. Pinnacle offers 23.67/1 and DraftKings 23/1, but Bovada's quarter-point extra is worth hunting down. Fleetwood's game travels beautifully to Augusta: he shapes the ball both ways, controls trajectory, and possesses the temperament for major championship Sundays. At these odds, the each-way insurance feels particularly valuable.
Robert MacIntyre sits out at 37.5/1 with Betcris, and while that looks a chunky price, we have the Scotsman at 2.7% to win (36/1 implied). Each-Way — It's marginal value, but his 26% top-10 probability and 82% cut likelihood make him an interesting outsider for each-way purposes. Pinnacle offers 37.28/1 and BetOnline 35/1, so Betcris edges ahead. MacIntyre's left-handed draw bias could unlock certain holes at Augusta, and his iron play has sharpened considerably over the past 12 months. At these odds, a small each-way punt feels justified for those wanting a longer-priced selection in the mix.
Players to Watch
Rory McIlroy — The defending champion carries the weight of history this week. Protecting a Green Jacket brings unique pressure, but McIlroy's class ensures he'll be competitive regardless. Worth monitoring his opening round score; if he starts fast, the confidence could snowball.
Bryson DeChambeau — Available at 14.51/1 with Betcris, slightly shorter than our 4.5% win probability suggests (21/1 implied). The power game can unlock birdies on the par-5s, but Augusta punishes wayward driving mercilessly. His 31% top-10 chance suggests he'll feature, but the volatility in his game makes him a risky outright selection at current odds.
Xander Schauffele — DraftKings offers 18/1, but we have him at 5.5% (17/1 implied), making that price marginal. His 35% top-10 probability is strong, and the consistency in his ball-striking gives him every chance of contending. Just lacks the wow factor to get truly excited at these odds.
Our Pick
Odds: 23.5/1 — DraftKings (others: 22.52/1 Betcris, 22.5/1 BetOnline)
Fitzpatrick's precise iron play and scrambling ability make him perfectly suited to Augusta's demands, and at 23.5/1 he offers genuine each-way value. BonusDevil's ratings give him a 4.3% chance of winning, around 22/1 implied, so DraftKings' price contains that crucial edge. His 32% top-10 probability and 85% cut certainty seal the deal for an each-way selection at a quarter the odds, five places. When the margins are this tight over 72 holes, accuracy trumps power, and Fitzpatrick has both in spades.
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