Title Race Stakes at the Meazza
This is a proper six-pointer. AC Milan sit second in Serie A on 66 points, three ahead of Juventus in fourth, and with the season entering its final stretch, Sunday night's clash at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza could have a massive say in who finishes where. Allegri back at the club he built his early reputation at, locking horns with Spalletti's Juventus side. The script writes itself.
The problem for Milan is their form has been rotten. Three defeats in the last five matches, including a 3-0 home hammering by Udinese and a 1-0 loss away at Lazio. The only bright spots are a narrow win at Hellas Verona and a 3-2 comeback against Torino at home. Four goals scored, seven conceded across those five games. That's a team leaking confidence, not just goals.
Juventus look like a side that has found their rhythm at exactly the right time. Four wins in five, with seven goals scored and only one conceded. They beat Atalanta away from home, which is never easy, and saw off Bologna 2-0 and Genoa 2-0 without breaking a sweat. Spalletti's side have the defensive structure and the late-season momentum that tends to win you football matches.
Team News
Milan have genuine problems here. Rafael Leรฃo is listed as missing this fixture, and that is a serious blow. He's their most dangerous attacker with 9 goals and 3 assists in 25 appearances this season. Lose Leรฃo and you lose the unpredictability, the pace, the ability to turn a match on its head. Ardon Jashari is also absent, which limits their options through the middle, and Lorenzo Torriani is unavailable in goal.
Juventus have their own concerns but the news is more encouraging. Kenan Yฤฑldฤฑz and Khรฉphren Thuram have both returned to group training, which is a significant boost. Yฤฑldฤฑz leads the Juve scoring charts with 10 goals and 6 assists in 32 appearances, and if he's fit to start, Milan's already stretched defensive unit has a serious problem. Fabio Miretti, Andrea Cambiaso, and Mattia Perin are all absent for Juve, but the key players appear to be available.
Head-to-Head
This fixture has an obsession with low-scoring draws. Three of the last five meetings have ended goalless, and the reverse fixture this season, played at the Juventus ground in October, finished 0-0. The one time goals came freely between these sides recently was in the Super Cup in January 2025, where Milan won 2-1. In league football specifically, goals between these two sides have been hard to come by.
Juventus did win 2-0 at home against Milan in January 2025 in the league, so they know how to beat this version of Milan. But that Milan side had Leรฃo fit and firing. This one doesn't.
The Betting Angle
The odds have Milan as slight outsiders at 3.12, which feels about right given their recent form and the Leรฃo absence. Juventus at 2.66 carries genuine value. They're the in-form side, they have a goal threat in Yฤฑldฤฑz who looks set to feature, and they're chasing Milan down in the table with a real incentive to win. Milan without Leรฃo look blunt up front. Their last five games show four goals scored across the lot, and they've only managed to keep one clean sheet.
Juventus away form is solid this season, W8 D3 L5, and they've already shown they can handle a big atmosphere on the road. Milan's home record isn't flawless either, three defeats at the Meazza this season already. The conditions are there for Juventus to take this.
The Under 2.5 Goals market at 1.93 also has merit given H2H history, but the value pick here is on the result.
Odds: 2.66 โ Unibet (FR)
Juventus arrive in form, well-organised, and with Yฤฑldฤฑz returning to training. Milan without Leรฃo look toothless, and their defensive numbers over recent weeks make them vulnerable to a side as disciplined and efficient as Spalletti's. The three-point gap at the top of the table gives Juventus every reason to go and take this.