Musselburgh, Thursday 21 May: Tips and Selections

Musselburgh, Thursday 21 May: Tips and Selections

A Thursday card at Musselburgh with good ground and light rain in the air. Three races to focus on, with a couple of genuinely interesting angles. The track rewards horses that handle a flat, galloping course, and the going today should suit horses with a clean action. Let’s get into it.

2:50 — British Stallion Studs EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (5f, Good)

Selection: Cailin Aine (6/4, BoyleSports/Betfred)

Tim Easterby’s filly is the most exposed horse in the field and her form reads better than a casual glance suggests. She ran creditably in the Lily Agnes at Chester from a wide draw, and her Thirsk effort last week, where she finished fourth of 12 as a market leader, looks forgivable given the field size and the pressure she was asked to take on early. She drops into a far weaker contest here and her RPR of 78 is the best in the race by a clear margin, with a TS of 77 confirming she has actually been running on the day rather than just on paper.

Connor Beasley takes over in the saddle. Easterby has nine winners from 107 runners in the last 14 days, which isn’t a hot yard by any stretch, but this filly is clearly their best juvenile right now and the step down in class should unlock her. At 6/4 she isn’t a price to get excited about, but in an eight-runner field with a non-threatening look to it, she is the selection.

Anna Belardo gets an honourable mention at 11/4. The Newland/Insole colt shaped with real promise in two novice runs and is described as quick enough for the five furlongs. The draw concern is noted but he could outrun his price if Cailin Aine doesn’t bounce back to form.

3:20 — Watermans Straightforward Legal Advice Restricted Maiden Stakes (7f, Good)

Selection: Blakefell (7/4, BoyleSports/Betfred)

This is a six-runner field with one non-runner declared, so each-way betting is not applicable here. Blakefell is the horse to be on. Ivan Furtado’s gelding ran in some serious sales races as a juvenile, holding his own at Doncaster and Newmarket before finishing second over this course and distance as favourite on his final start at two. He then had wind surgery over winter and returns to the exact track where he ran his best race.

An RPR of 88 and TS of 85 mark him out as the most battle-hardened runner in this field. Whernside, his co-favourite at 7/4, has placed twice this spring and is clearly consistent, but Blakefell’s course form and the wind op angle gives him the edge. Horses that have undergone breathing surgery regularly find a new gear on their return, and dropping back to maiden company after mixing it in stakes races is a significant drop in grade.

Furtado’s yard is modest in terms of 14-day numbers (1 from 18), but this horse is clearly the yard’s best hope today and the trainer wouldn’t have aimed him back at Musselburgh without confidence in the ground and the fitness levels.

4:25 — Never Standing Still Handicap (7f, Good)

Selection: Bellarchi Each-Way (5/2, Betfred)

The case for Bellarchi writes itself. Four of her last four wins have come at this very track, including two last month over seven furlongs and a mile. She went to Chester two weeks ago, drew wide, and finished down the field. Forget it. That wasn’t a Musselburgh Bellarchi performance. This is.

Grant Tuer’s mare has found 1lb off the weights since her most recent win and the draw is far more workable today. An RPR of 102 shows she genuinely goes right up to this level, and the good ground is exactly what she wants. The only query is whether something else dictates early fractions given the number of front-runners in the race, but Bellarchi has shown she can adapt.

Kosometsuke at 9/2 is the danger. Michael Dods’ gelding won a 7f handicap at Thirsk on his seasonal debut and was only fifth when dropped back to six. Back up in trip and in calmer hands with Connor Beasley, he could run a big race. Wild Nature deserves respect too at 3/1 if he handles the return to turf after his Kempton all-weather win, but the layoff is a genuine concern.

At 5/2 each-way in a 10-runner handicap, Bellarchi represents genuine value given her dominant course record.

• Each-way terms: 3 places at 1/5 odds

Today’s NAP