Naas, Saturday 4 July 2026: Tips and Selections

Naas, Saturday 4 July 2026: Tips and Selections

A compact but quality card at Naas on good ground, with Listed action bookending a rated handicap that looks more open than the market suggests. Aidan O’Brien’s yard hits 22% at this track and arrives with a live favourite in the opener. Ger Lyons is at 15% course strike rate and fields the morning-line market leader in the evening’s feature. Three races, three selections worth your attention.

2:33 Coolmore Stud Blackbeard Tipperary Stakes (Listed, 5f)

Selection: Big Negotiator Each-Way at 9/2 (Boyle Sports and Betfred)

The market is understandably on Carry The Flag at 4/7, and he merits that status on a rating of 101, top of the field. The Aidan O’Brien runner was beaten up at Royal Ascot last time, but the yard’s 22% course record at Naas is hard to argue with and he remains the horse to beat. However, this is not a play-the-favourite column.

Big Negotiator at 9/2 is the value in this race. She rates 94 with the form study, second of this ten behind only the favourite, and cheekpieces go on for the first time today, which is a meaningful trainer move rather than a panic measure. Yes, the Queen Mary at Ascot was a flat run, beaten seven lengths, but she was progressive before that with a win in the sequence and she handles good ground at five furlongs. A small-field Listed race back on home soil, fitted with headgear, off a mark that still makes her a live player. Take her each-way at 9/2 with three places paid at 1/5 the odds.

Rejoinder at 18/1 merits a mention. An 82,000-euro breeze-up purchase by Space Blues, half-brother to mile performer Thunder Beauty, and the form study rates him 89 on debut, third of this field. If he shows up ready to run, that price could look generous by the end of the five furlongs.

3:44 Irish EBF Pat Smullen Stakes (Listed, 1m)

Selection: Dancing Destiny Each-Way at 15/2 (Boyle Sports) or 7/1 (Betfred)

Florida Bay at 8/13 is a fair favourite. Aidan O’Brien’s yard won this contest last year, the colt has course and distance form, good ground is proven, and he rates 99. If you want a safe single, he is your horse. But 8/13 is not what we’re here for.

Dancing Destiny makes considerably more appeal at 15/2. A fourth at Fairyhouse last time looked bad on paper, beaten 10 lengths, but that run followed a win and a third from earlier starts and the step up to a mile suits her profile. Course, distance and good ground are all ticked. Joseph Patrick O’Brien’s yard has been busy and productive, landing 13 from 63 in the past fortnight. She rates 97 with the form study, second-best figure in this field, and she represents a yard that clearly has her in good order. At 15/2 against an odds-on shot in a Listed mile for two-year-olds, she is solid each-way material.

One Number at 4/1 is also worth a second look. The run in the Listed race at Ascot was ordinary, but the runner-up effort before that reads well, and the step up in trip today is a genuine positive. At 4/1 in an eight-runner Listed race, Joseph Patrick O’Brien saddling, he could outrun his odds.

5:30 TRM Stay Cool Stay Sound Rated Race (7f)

Selection: Ocean’s Breath at 6/5 (Boyle Sports and Betfred)

Six runners, compact field, and the form study puts Ocean’s Breath at the head of affairs on 91. The Ger Lyons yard has been in scintillating form over the past fortnight, returning 9 from 22 runners, and Lyons has a 15% strike rate at Naas. Gary Carroll takes the ride. Three lengths clear at Fairyhouse last time, progressive profile, course and distance proven, good ground ideal, and a first-time tongue-tie to maintain focus. This is a horse going the right way in a trainer who is very much firing.

Yes, 6/5 is a short price and not everyone wants to tie up money at odds-on in a rated race. If you want an alternative, L L Koulsty at 11/4 is solid. A handicap win at Cork last time, rated 90, one point behind Ocean’s Breath, and Rory Mulligan claims 5lbs. But in a six-runner field with a yard this hot, backing the Lyons runner at evens-plus is not a stretch.

Lyons also runs Suzie Songs in the same race. She has the course and distance form and a tongue-tie applied for the first time, but the trainer will know which of his two runners represents the stronger chance, and Ocean’s Breath’s recent Fairyhouse demolition job is hard to look past.

Today’s NAP

Ocean’s Breath — TRM Stay Cool Stay Sound Rated Race (5:30, Naas)
Odds: 6/5 — Boyle Sports (others: 6/5 Betfred, 6/5 LiveScore Bet)

Ger Lyons returns 9 from 22 runners in the last fortnight and carries a 15% course record at Naas. Ocean’s Breath heads the form figures on 91, won by three lengths last time stepping up in trip, and has course, distance and good ground all proven today. A first-time tongue-tie completes the picture for a trainer who does not add headgear without reason. Six runners, progressive three-year-old, in-form yard. This is the bet of the day.