LIV Golf
New York 54-Hole Leaderboard: Niemann in Command at Trump National
Joaquin Niemann has seized control at Trump National Bedminster, storming two clear at the top of the leaderboard on 14-under par after 36 holes of LIV Golf New York. The Chilean has been ruthless: consecutive rounds of 64 and 65 have left the field chasing shadows. Harold Varner III sits second on 12-under, with Lee Westwood a further two shots back in third. The final round on Sunday promises a straight shootout between Niemann and a pack of hungry challengers who still have every reason to believe.
Our Pre-Tournament Pick
Jon Rahm, our pre-event selection, finds himself in the mix but has work to do. The Spaniard is currently tied for a spot in the top 12 on plus-3, having carded rounds of 72 and 71. While two rounds remain before the final push at Trump National, Rahm sits six shots adrift of Niemann and has slipped off the radar in terms of overall win probability. He remains capable of a charge, but the window is narrowing quickly with Niemann playing the golf of his life.
Who’s in Contention
Niemann’s stranglehold is near total. At 0.29/1, he commands a fortress of a position with two rounds to navigate. Varner’s second-place standing on 12-under gives him realistic hope, but he’d need a near-perfect final 36 holes to overhaul the leader’s cushion, currently priced at 3.33/1. Westwood, five shots back on 10-under, remains a live threat at 16/1 if the front-runners stumble. McKibbin at 40/1 and Garcia at 80/1 are longer shots, but both occupy positions where a scorching final day could vault them into contention.
Round 3 Betting Angles
Niemann’s lead invites a contrarian play: back Varner to post a low one and tighten the screw before Sunday’s finale. The American carded a 67 in Round 2 and has shown consistency. A 64 or 65 tomorrow would put genuine pressure on the leader heading into 18 holes. Westwood, meanwhile, looks vulnerable despite his third-place perch. The Englishman’s position depends entirely on Niemann stalling, and at 16/1, there’s better value elsewhere. Watch for McKibbin’s form: the young talent has stayed within four shots and could emerge as a dark horse if he strings together two solid rounds. The course at Trump National has not produced wild scoring swings, so expect tight margins to persist.
Our Updated Pick
Odds: 3.33/1 – bet365
Varner sits in striking distance on 12-under, just two shots behind Niemann, and has posted rounds of 69 and 67 to prove he belongs in this fight. The American has the pedigree to chase down a leader in a 72-hole format, and at 3.33/1, offers sharper value than Niemann’s odds-on market. Two rounds remain for him to close the gap or leapfrog the Chilean.
Top 5 After Round 2
| Pos | Player | R1 | R2 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Niemann | 64 | 65 | -14 |
| 2 | Harold Varner III | 69 | 67 | -12 |
| 3 | Lee Westwood | 69 | 65 | -10 |
| 4 | Tom McKibbin | 70 | 66 | -7 |
| 5 | Sergio Garcia | 70 | 65 | -6 |
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