LIV Golf
Niemann Tears Up Bedminster, Rahm Struggles in Round 1
Joaquin Niemann has carved out a two-shot lead after Round 1 at Trump National Bedminster, firing a sizzling 64 to reach 7-under par. The Chilean sits ahead of Lucas Herbert and Ian Poulter, who both carded 66s to sit five shots back. This is a commanding start on a course that’s proving selective: the next group at 3-under contains just Thomas Pieters and Brendan Steele, leaving little margin for error as the field spreads.
Our pre-tournament pick Jon Rahm struggled out of the gates, posting an even-par round of 71 to sit just one over. Not a disaster at LIV Golf’s 72-hole format, but it’s early business we’d prefer to bin. The Spaniard faces a genuine uphill battle if he’s to mount a realistic title charge from this position.
Our Pre-Tournament Pick
Rahm’s opening 71 leaves him treading water at a course where the lead is already seven shots clear. In a 54-hole shootout format, one bad round doesn’t end your chances, but you can’t afford another pedestrian day. He’s got work to do, and quickly.
Who’s in Contention
Niemann’s 1.2/1 odds reflect his commanding position, and rightly so. A seven-shot lead after 18 holes is serious money in anyone’s book. Herbert and Poulter at 3.33/1 and 22/1 respectively have genuine claims, but they’ll need significant rounds to make up ground. Pieters and Steele at 3-under are the next realistic challengers, priced at 18/1 and 40/1, though they’re already chasing a moving target.
The chasing pack, including Varner III, Watson, and Vincent, all sit at 2-under or worse. It’s not impossible from here, but Niemann has set a high bar.
Round 2 Betting Angles
Niemann’s breakaway plays into frontrunner fatigue. He’s got the lead, but Bedminster can bite back. Look for value in someone five to six shots back posting a low number tomorrow and piling the pressure back on. Herbert and Poulter have already shown they can go low here.
Rahm needs an immediate response. A score in the mid-to-low 60s would drag him back into contention. A repeat of today puts him on the outside looking in with just two rounds remaining. This is a make-or-break 18 holes for our pick.
The 2-under bunch (Varner, Watson, Vincent, Westwood) are effectively dead money unless the leader falters. At seven shots back after one round, the odds don’t compensate for the work required. Fade them until they show something special tomorrow.
Our Updated Pick
Odds: Available at 40/1+ – Multiple bookmakers
One bad round doesn’t sink a 72-hole event, but Rahm’s 71 has left him with a mountain to climb at 1-over par. He’ll need to go low tomorrow to stay in the picture. Still holds enough quality to piece together three strong rounds and sneak into contention by Sunday, but the margin for error has vanished. This is value only if he responds emphatically in Round 2.
Top 5 After Round 1
| Pos | Player | R1 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Niemann | 64 | -7 |
| 2 | Lucas Herbert | 66 | -5 |
| 3 | Ian Poulter | 66 | -5 |
| 4 | Thomas Pieters | 68 | -3 |
| 5 | Brendan Steele | 68 | -3 |
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