Newbury, Saturday 18 April: Good Ground, Three Group 3s, Plenty to Argue About
Newbury's Greenham meeting has always been one of the sharpest early-season indicators for the classics and the summer campaign. Good ground suits the track perfectly, rewarding horses with a clean, balanced action, and today's seven-race card is topped by three Group 3s that carry genuine implications for what follows at Newmarket in a fortnight. The Callum Smith versus David Morrell fight in Liverpool tonight means the sporting Saturday is stacked, but the horses come first. Here are the angles that matter.
1:25 — Fred Darling Stakes (Group 3, Fillies, 7f)
Selection: Catching The Moon at 13/2 William Hill or Coral
Fifteen runners in a Group 3 means this is a proper puzzle, but Ryan Moore on Richard and Peter Fahey's Catching The Moon is the angle that keeps coming back. The form reads 211, so she has already won twice at this level and finished second in between, and Moore booking her for a Newbury Group 3 on good ground is not a coincidence. The Fahey yard has hit 4 from 28 over the last fortnight, which is a respectable strike rate at this level and suggests the horses are running to somewhere close to their marks.
The 7f trip at Newbury on genuine good ground is a proper test for a filly at this stage of her development, and Catching The Moon looks like one who appreciates a track that gives her something to work against. At 13/2 in a field this deep, with four places on offer at 1/5 odds, there is each-way appeal as well as a win case. K Sarra at 10/1 is one to watch if Ralph Beckett's yard finds its feet quickly this season, but the raw form leans towards the market principals here.
Each-Way Recommendation: Catching The Moon, 13/2 William Hill, each-way (4 places, 1/5 odds)
2:00 — Greenham Stakes (Group 3, Colts and Geldings, 7f)
Selection: Zavateri at 15/8 PricedUp Bet or 7/4 Bet365
Zavateri is the class act in this field and the RPR of 128 confirms it, sitting a full ten pounds clear of the next best on official ratings. Eve Johnson Houghton's colt arrives on the back of four consecutive wins, with only a fourth-place finish last time breaking that sequence. The TS of 115 is the highest in the race, the yard has hit 2 from 16 in the last fourteen days and is ticking along nicely, and Charles Bishop rides with real confidence on a horse he knows.
The concern is that fourth last time out, but in a race like this, where you need to weigh one substandard run against four wins and the strongest bare numbers in the field, the case for opposition feels forced. Title Role at 13/2 is the most dangerous threat: Simon and Ed Crisford's colt has a form line reading 21-311 and James Doyle does not take bad rides. Albert Einstein for Aidan O'Brien at 3/1 also demands respect, but his RPR of 117 lags behind and the form figure of 6 last time out is a genuine red flag. Zavateri at 7/4 or thereabouts is the shortest price in this preview, but it is the most defensible selection on the card.
2:35 — John Porter Stakes (Group 3, 1m4f)
Selection: Phantom Flight Each-Way at 7/1 Bet365 or PricedUp Bet
With Pride of Arras a non-runner, this has come down to six runners and the market has contracted, but 7/1 about Phantom Flight still looks too generous. George Scott's seven-year-old gelding has a form line reading 71-191, and that most recent win on his seasonal return is the key piece of evidence. William Buick rides, which always signals intent at this level, and the RPR of 124 is entirely competitive in this reduced field.
Al Aasy is the market leader at around 11/4 and the RPR of 131 is the best in the race, but William Haggas has hit only 2 from 24 runners in the last fortnight and the form string of 47159 contains more question marks than answers for a horse now aged nine. Lion's Pride for the Gosdens at 3/1 carries serious stable confidence, with Ryan Moore booked and a yard that has fired 6 from 17 recently, making it the most dangerous rival. But Phantom Flight at 7/1 each-way, with three places on offer, represents a live return if the Buick partnership clicks on ground that suits.
Today's NAP
Odds: 15/8 — PricedUp Bet (others: 7/4 Bet365, 3.15 Betfair Exchange)
The highest RPR in the race by a distance, four wins from five career starts, and a TS of 115 that nothing else here can match. One below-par run last time is not enough to knock him off the top of the market in a race where the opposition, though respected, cannot match him on the numbers. Good ground, a clean seven furlongs, and Charles Bishop in the saddle: Zavateri is the bet of the day at Newbury.