Newbury, Thursday 11 June: Tips and Analysis

Newbury, Thursday 11 June: Tips and Analysis

Rain has been falling at Newbury and the ground is riding Good To Soft, which immediately sharpens the picture considerably. Horses that have proven themselves on cut come straight to the front of the queue. Three races to get stuck into today, with a banker that I want on side at what looks a very workable price.

3:30 Ardonagh Group Handicap (7f, Good To Soft, 16 runners)

Sixteen runners, five-place terms, and the ground has done half the work for us already. This is a proper puzzle of a race but there are two horses I want to focus on.

Forty Years On (3/1, Boyle Sports/Betfred) is the obvious market leader and for good reason. George Scott’s yard has been flying with four winners from 15 runners over the past fortnight, and this filly did her winning on soft ground at Ascot last September before finishing a tight second to a horse that went on to win the Hambleton at York. That form reads extremely well in this context. The concern is the layoff, but Scott’s current strike rate suggests the horses are going to the track in good order.

Brian Each-Way (10/1, Boyle Sports/Betfred) is the one who catches the eye at a bigger price. He was runner-up over this exact course and distance on soft ground last October and arrives 5lb lower than that rating. His spring form on the all-weather and faster ground can be safely set aside. The return to slow ground at a track where he has placed form is the angle here. J S Moore’s yard is quiet at the moment but the horse himself has the profile: a C&D placed runner dropped back to a winnable mark on conditions he handles.

Selection: Brian each-way at 10/1. With five places on offer, you need him to run to his Newbury best and the soft ground facilitates exactly that.

4:05 Tonight’s Super Boost Live At BetVictor Handicap (6f, Good To Soft, 9 runners)

Smaller field here, nine runners, three places. The ground query is critical for several of these and it narrows things down sharply.

Pressure’s On (5/1, Boyle Sports) immediately stands out. Ed Dunlop’s yard has been in excellent form with four winners from 16 runners in the past two weeks, and this horse has a specific line in the form book that matters today: he won a big-field race at York on Good To Soft last summer off a mark 1lb higher than he carries today. He usually runs over further, so the drop to 6f raises a legitimate question, but the going plays to his strengths and Dunlop’s in-form stable tips the balance. Hector Crouch takes the ride and he’s been associated with the yard’s recent winners.

Wild Clary (2/1, Boyle Sports/Betfred) is the market favourite and Richard Hannon has been consistent with nine winners from 54 runners lately. Three solid runs this season, conditions suit, and Sean Levey knows the horse. Hard to dismiss at any price but 2/1 in a nine-runner handicap is short enough to want something bigger onside.

Selection: Pressure’s On at 5/1. The York win on the same going off a higher mark is the standout piece of evidence in this field.

5:15 White Horse International Handicap (1m4f, Good To Soft, 8 runners)

An intriguing three-year-old staying handicap and the Good To Soft ground is a genuine differentiator in this field.

Kindly Queen (13/2, Boyle Sports/Betfred) makes plenty of appeal. Ralph Beckett has sent out eight winners from 39 runners in the past fortnight, and this filly has been doing her improving quietly. She ran fourth on her handicap debut at Kempton before finishing second at Windsor on her first start on turf, wearing first-time blinkers that she retains today. Horses who run well with a hood or visor first time and then keep it on tend to carry the benefit forward. The step up to a mile and four looks like exactly what she needs on breeding and style of racing. Edward Greatrex rides and Beckett’s yard is clearly operating at a healthy level right now.

Hard To Believe (3/1, Boyle Sports/Betfred) is the market’s second pick and Andrew Balding has the stable firing with 16 winners from 78 runners in a fortnight. He won on Good To Soft at Bath and has clearly retained ability, but the York run as favourite last time out does take the shine off slightly. Stablemate Mythical Bay is the market leader at 9/4 and while he’s progressive, the each-way value lies elsewhere.

Selection: Kindly Queen at 13/2. Beckett in form, hood retained, going suits, trip an upgrade.

Today’s NAP

Pressure’s On — 4:05 Tonight’s Super Boost Live At BetVictor Handicap (Newbury)
Odds: 5/1 — Boyle Sports (others: 11/2 Betfred, 9/2 LiveScore Bet)

The form angle is blunt and compelling: this horse won a big-field York handicap on Good To Soft last summer off a mark 1lb higher than today’s. Ed Dunlop’s yard has hit four winners from 16 runners in the past fortnight, Hector Crouch has been riding winners for the stable, and the competition in a nine-runner 6f heat on cut ground looks beatable. The 5/1 with Boyle Sports is the value stand-out on the board.