Newbury, Thursday 9 July 2026: Tips and Selections

Newbury, Thursday 9 July 2026: Tips and Selections

A warm, sunny afternoon at Newbury with the ground riding Good to Firm across all seven races. That surface puts a premium on horses who travel well, and any runner who struggles to handle quick ground should be left alone regardless of how good their form looks on paper. Three races stand out for punters looking for value today, and the course stats make for interesting reading with Callum Rodriguez posting a remarkable 29% strike rate here and Owen Burrows running at a profitable A/E of 1.1 at the track.

5:13 — Win Races With Jonathan Portman EBF Fillies’ Restricted Novice Stakes (Div 1, 6f)

With Angel Sense dominating the market at 5/4, the layers have made their decision, and it is hard to argue too loudly against her. Three runs in, she has banked three consecutive placed efforts including two seconds, and Marco Botti’s yard has ticked along steadily. Harry Davies rides. The good-to-firm ground should not inconvenience a filly with her level of racecourse experience relative to this field.

The value angle sits with Global Success at 4/1 (Boyle Sports, Betfred, LiveScore Bet). Rossa Ryan takes the ride for J S Moore, and while the yard has had a quiet fortnight, the form figures of 5-6-3 show steady improvement across three starts. A filly who placed at 4/1 is precisely what this division offers. If Angel Sense underperforms at odds-on, Global Success looks the most natural beneficiary.

Selection: Global Success, 4/1

6:17 — Juddmonte EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (6f)

Nineteen declared, one non-runner, and a wide-open novice contest that the market has condensed around Desert Legend at 11/4. Richard Hannon’s runner showed a placed effort on debut (form figure: 3) and the Hannon yard knows this track intimately. That said, Hannon has gone only 2 from 53 in the last 14 days, which is a cold strike rate that deserves acknowledgement.

The horse who catches the eye at a price is Beresford Gap Each-Way at 9/1 (Boyle Sports, Betfred, LiveScore Bet). Andrew Balding has been in much better form over the past fortnight, going 9 from 57, and David Probert is a jockey who knows Newbury well. The form figure of 6 on debut is not spectacular, but big-field juvenile maidens and novices regularly produce runners who improve dramatically second time out. At 9/1 in a 19-runner field paying three places, the each-way case is solid. Macau at 11/2 (Archie Watson) is the main market rival aside from Desert Legend, but Watson’s yard has been quiet recently.

Selection: Beresford Gap, 9/1 each-way

7:27 — Pump Technology Handicap (1m)

This is where the course stats really start doing the talking. The Third Star carries Callum Rodriguez in the saddle for Owen Burrows, and that combination on this track is genuinely compelling. Rodriguez is operating at a 29% win rate at Newbury with an A/E of 1.87, numbers that indicate real course affinity rather than fluke. Burrows himself runs at a 21% course strike rate with an A/E of 1.1, meaning punters backing his Newbury runners at SP have been making money.

The form reads 697-52. There was a rough patch, but the last two runs tell a much better story: a promising runner-up effort last time out over this trip on going she handles. The 38-day gap is noted, but Burrows tends to produce his horses fit. She carries 138lbs and sits mid-table in the weights, which is a workable position in a 12-runner handicap. The 7/2 on offer (Boyle Sports, Betfred, with 10/3 available at LiveScore Bet) is not a knockout price, but the jockey-trainer-course alignment here is the kind of angle that regularly rewards.

Grizedale heads the weights on 149lbs fresh off a win, and the Spotlight comment confirms he tops the form figures. The concern is obvious: carrying top weight from stall one over a mile on fast ground, on a quick seven-day turnaround, is a lot to ask. He could still win, but The Third Star offers better value.

Selection: The Third Star, 10/3 (LiveScore Bet)

Today’s NAP

The Third Star — Pump Technology Engineered To Perform Handicap (7:27, Newbury)
Odds: 10/3 — LiveScore Bet (others: 7/2 Boyle Sports, 7/2 Betfred)

The jockey-trainer-course alignment here is as strong as it gets for a Thursday handicap. Callum Rodriguez wins at 29% at Newbury with an A/E of 1.87, Owen Burrows runs at 21% on the track with profitable figures, and The Third Star arrives in good heart after a runner-up last time. She handles today’s good-to-firm ground, has form over the mile trip, and a mid-range weight gives her every chance. Take the 10/3 at LiveScore Bet while it lasts.