Newmarket (July) Tips: Saturday 4 July 2026

Newmarket (July) Tips: Saturday 4 July 2026

Good to firm ground under a partly cloudy sky at Headquarters today, and the July Course is set up perfectly for progressive types who handle a fast surface. Three races to focus on, with some genuine value lurking in the mile-and-six and the Group 2 fillies’ contest. While Silverstone gears up for the British Grand Prix tomorrow, the action worth studying today is firmly on the turf at Newmarket.

David Menuisier’s 29% course strike rate at this track is the standout trainer stat on the card, and it becomes very relevant in the opener. Edward Greatrex (20% here, A/E 1.33) and Hector Crouch (20%, A/E 1.33) are the two jockeys whose Newmarket numbers demand respect.

2:05 — Betway Bet 10 Get 40 Handicap (1m6f)

Selection: Lopeo (7/4, Boyle Sports / LiveScore Bet)

This is the simplest race on the card if you trust the figures and the trainer angle. Lopeo tops the ratings, stays this trip well, and acts on any ground including the good to firm on offer today. His Doncaster second was a clear-cut performance, beaten two lengths in a race where the form has subsequently held up, and David Menuisier’s 29% win rate at this course is the best of any trainer on today’s card by a considerable margin. Hector Crouch in the saddle, who also boasts a 20% course strike rate here, is another tick in the box.

Arc Ole Ole is the main market rival at 15/8 and has bags of form in this grade, but he’s 4lb higher than when last winning and the step up to a stiff mile and six is untested. Hard To Believe has been consistent but modest speed figures limit the confidence. Lopeo at 7/4 is a fair price for what looks the most straightforward selection of the afternoon.

2:40 — Betway Lancashire Oaks, Group 2 (1m4f)

Selection: Caught U Sleeping Each-Way (6/1, Boyle Sports / Betfred)

Tiffany is a deserving favourite and the visor could unlock her, but there is a case to be made she’s become a serial bridesmaid and four consecutive seconds in a season tells its own story. At evens, she’s not the bet.

Caught U Sleeping is the pick at 6/1. The Noel Meade filly was beaten a neck in a Group 3 at Naas last time out, a performance that reads well given she was running right to her form against more experienced rivals. She is progressive, handles good ground, and at three years old with a weight allowance of 12lbs versus the older mares, the rating gap feels exploitable. The quick turnaround is flagged in the data, but the flat Newmarket track suits a clean-travelling filly far better than many venues and this is not a gruelling test.

Tattycoram, fresh off a Listed win at Goodwood for Ralph Beckett (15% at this course), is a solid each-way alternative at 8/1, with Greatrex aboard who hits at 19% here. But Caught U Sleeping represents the better price for a filly running into form at exactly the right time. Three places at 1/5 odds gives this strong each-way credentials.

3:15 — Betway Old Newton Cup Handicap (1m4f, 12 runners)

Selection: Paddy The Squire Each-Way (15/2, Boyle Sports / Betfred)

Klassleader is the odds-on jolly and the York handicap win was visually impressive, but a mark 8lb higher today is a significant ask for a lightly raced four-year-old, and that price offers no value whatsoever in a 12-runner handicap.

Paddy The Squire is a horse with a genuine grievance from his last start. Traffic problems and a poor draw at Ascot left him with too much to do, yet he still finished within two lengths off a mark just 1lb higher than today’s. First-time tongue-tie and cheekpieces represent a yard trying to find another gear, and the step up to this longer trip is explicitly noted as likely to suit him better. Andrew Mullen’s 15% strike rate at this course with an A/E of 1.69 makes him the best value jockey on the card in terms of return on investment.

Claymore at 14/1 is worth a small interest after his Windsor demolition job, three and a half lengths clear at a mark 5lb lower, but his front-running style can be vulnerable on a stiff track. Night Breeze at 20/1 each-way is also fair with 4lb rise for a narrow second last time, but Paddy The Squire at 15/2 is the value play in a wide-open race. Four places at 1/5 odds with 12 runners makes each-way the sensible approach.

Today’s NAP

Lopeo — Betway Bet 10 Get 40 Handicap (2:05, Newmarket)
Odds: 7/4 — Boyle Sports (others: 15/8 Betfred, 7/4 LiveScore Bet)

The combination of top rated figures, a proven trip and ground, Menuisier’s outstanding 29% course win rate and Hector Crouch’s 20% record at this track adds up to a selection that ticks every box. At 7/4, this is not a generous price, but in a seven-runner handicap where the main rival faces an untested trip and a stiffer mark, Lopeo is the most compelling argument on today’s card. Back him to win.