Newmarket, Thursday 16 April: Good Ground, Three Races Worth Your Money

Newmarket, Thursday 16 April: Good Ground, Three Races Worth Your Money

Newmarket's Craven meeting kicks off the British Flat season proper, and the card is headlined by a Craven Stakes that looks genuinely wide open and an Abernant that could throw up a surprise. Good ground across the Rowley Mile suits horses with a clean, galloping action, and the going report is key to several selections today. Here is where the value lies.

1:50 — Betway Handicap (6f, Good, 16 runners)

Selection: Treanmor Each-Way — 9/2 Bet365, 9/2 Unibet (Betfair Exchange: 6.2)

Charlie Appleby's yard is firing at an exceptional 7/17 over the last 14 days, and William Buick chooses this one over stablemate Silent Applause, which is as strong a signal as you will get in a 16-runner handicap. Treanmor cost two million euros as a yearling and announced himself with an impressive debut win over this course and distance on good to firm ground last May. The subsequent runs over seven furlongs and a mile were never going to bring out his best, and the gelding operation since suggests connections know exactly what they are working with. Back at six furlongs on the Rowley Mile, on good ground, on handicap debut, with the yard bang in form and Buick taking the ride, the angle writes itself.

Song Of The Clyde is the one to beat on form and Rossa Ryan takes the mount, but he is off top weight and is exposed at this level. Treanmor at 9/2 each-way with five places paid is the bet in this field.

Each-way terms: 5 places at 1/5 odds.

3:00 — Zyn Abernant Stakes (Group 3, 6f, Good, 14 runners)

Selection: Aramram Each-Way — 8/1 Bet365 (William Hill: 7/1, Betfair Exchange: 9.2)

Richard Hannon's yard is ticking over at 5/41 in the last fortnight, so no one is going to pretend this is a trainer in the form of his life, but the horse here is the story. Aramram has been quietly progressive throughout his career, mostly in handicap company, and arrived at Group 3 level off the back of a Listed win at Doncaster in which he beat today's rival Jasour by a length going away. His two course and distance efforts have both produced placed efforts, so the track holds no fears.

The key concern for many runners in this field is the turf-to-all-weather crossover question. Completely Random and Diligent Harry both dead-heated in a Listed sprint at Lingfield in January, but their turf records are miserable. Completely Random is 1/9 on grass. Diligent Harry is 0/18. At 16/1 and 20/1 respectively, the market is not fooled, and rightly so. Aramram simply does not carry that uncertainty. He won on good to soft on seasonal debut and has solid form on good ground. He is also improving, with his RPR of 119 the highest it has ever been.

Prince Of India at 9/1 is interesting on his good-ground form figures of 12113, and he cannot be fully dismissed each-way. But the best value in the race is Aramram at 8/1, who heads into this as a genuine Group 3 performer rather than an all-weather raider hoping turf form holds up.

Each-way terms: 4 places at 1/5 odds.

3:35 — Betway Craven Stakes (Group 3, 1m, Good, 7 runners)

Selection: Hankelow — 6/1 Bet365 (William Hill: 11/2, Betfair Exchange: 7.0)

This is the race of the day and one of the first meaningful Classic trials of the season. Hidden Force is a deserved favourite at 2/1. The Frankel colt is two from two, the Appleby yard is blazing at 7/17 in the last fortnight, and Buick takes the ride. The track record for that specific Kempton conditions race is excellent, having produced subsequent Group 1 scorers including a 2,000 Guineas winner in 2024 and 2025. The case for him is strong.

However, at 2/1 in a field that includes Hawk Mountain and a progressive colt in Hankelow, there is a value gap worth exploiting. K R Burke's yard is in superb form at 7/46 over the last two weeks, and Hankelow arrives as a genuine course specialist who won the Autumn Stakes over this mile at Newmarket on good to firm ground, making all from the front and doing it comfortably. His sole defeat last season was being nabbed on the line by Avicenna at Doncaster, which he reversed emphatically next time out. He likes to dominate and he loves Newmarket.

Hawk Mountain is the highest-rated runner here at 128 RPR, but the Futurity Trophy win came on heavy ground at Doncaster, and the form comment explicitly flags that he may ideally need softer going and further than a mile this season. Good ground over the Rowley Mile is not his optimum scenario right now.

Avicenna is unbeaten but goes up another furlong and into a harder race, and the greenness he showed at Doncaster suggests this mile trip may be as much as he wants at present. Hankelow at 6/1 with course form, a fit yard, and a proper tactical angle is the clear play.

Today's NAP