Newmarket, Friday 15 May: Tips and Selections

Newmarket, Friday 15 May: Tips and Selections

Good ground at Headquarters on a Friday afternoon, three races worth your attention, and a card that rewards a bit of digging beyond the market leaders. The Rowley Mile is as honest a test as you get in British Flat racing, and on good going the form tends to come out. Here is where the value sits today.

2:32 — Boodles Handicap (1m4f, Good)

Eight runners, a mile and a half on good ground, and the market is split between several credible contenders. This is the most interesting puzzle on the card.

Double Meaning tops the RPR rankings at 103 and carries the lowest weight in the field at 9st 10lbs, which is a significant advantage over the course and distance. His form reads 11245 and those two wins suggest he goes on good ground without any issue. The concern is that seasonal debut form sometimes takes a run to warm up, and the trainer John Berry’s yard is quiet at present.

The horse I want to be on is Marnier at 9/2. The Gosden operation has been firing, returning nine winners from 35 runners in the last fortnight, and Robert Havlin takes the ride. Marnier’s last completed run shows a second and a fifth, and the step back up to a mile and four furlongs looks exactly right on this pedigree. Gosden horses often improve with the better weather and better ground, and 9/2 with the yard in this kind of nick is worth taking. The handicapper has left him on a workable mark and, with conditions in his favour, this is the angle.

Selection: Marnier, 9/2 (BoyleSports, Betfred, LiveScore Bet)

3:07 — Juddmonte EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (6f, Good)

Fourteen two-year-olds over six furlongs, which means this is as chaotic as juvenile racing gets. The market has O’Gorman at a short price, and Oisin Murphy in the saddle for a George Scott yard that is operating at a solid 5/21 strike rate over the last fortnight is a combination that commands respect. His form reads 21, he has already shown he can handle racecourse pressure, and on this going he should handle the track well. That said, 9/4 is a short price for a 14-runner juvenile race.

The more interesting play is Regal Chita Each-Way at 15/2 with BoyleSports and Betfred. James Owen’s yard has been exceptional recently, hitting the board at a remarkable 13 from 54 runners across the last 14 days. That is a trainer firing at full throttle. Regal Chita is a debutant, so there is no form to assess, but when you see a first-time runner from a yard operating at that level handed to David Probert at 15/2 in a big juvenile field, you take the each-way chance. Three places at 1/5 the odds means you only need a placing to get back a decent return, and with the stable in this form, the money looks placed with purpose.

Selection: Regal Chita (each-way), 15/2 (BoyleSports, Betfred)

4:53 — Behind The Bridle Racehorse Aftercare Handicap (7f, Good)

Six runners, which means each-way terms shrink to two places at 1/4 odds and the market is dominated by a short-priced favourite. We’re Goosers at 4/7 with Oisin Murphy is the obvious call, and in isolation the form does back it up: a 221 sequence before a disappointing sixth last time. Hugo Palmer’s yard is ticking along and Murphy is always a positive booking.

But 4/7 is a price you lay, not back. The alternative here is Magic Box Each-Way at 8/1 for William Haggas, who is running at 13 winners from 49 runners across the last fortnight. That is a top-level strike rate from one of the most respected yards in Newmarket. Magic Box has a form line of 12125 and that placed consistency is precisely what you want from an each-way shot in a small field. She clearly handles good ground and the step back to seven furlongs on the Rowley Mile suits her profile. Haggas placing a filly in this company with that form at 8/1 is not an accident. Take the each-way play.

Selection: Magic Box (each-way), 8/1 (BoyleSports, Betfred, LiveScore Bet)

Today’s NAP