Newton Abbot, Monday 13 July 2026 — Tips & Selections

Newton Abbot, Monday 13 July 2026 — Tips & Selections

A tight six-race card at Newton Abbot on good to firm ground, and while the fields are small and the money modest, there are genuine angles to exploit across the three featured chases. Small fields mean each-way betting is largely redundant today, so we are picking our battles and going win-only unless the case is watertight. Dan Skelton’s yard is among the sharpest in the country right now, and that matters here.

2:42 — Racing To School Reaches 250,000 Handicap Chase (2m½f)

Selection: Gore Point (4/7 Betfred, 4/7 LiveScore Bet)

Three runners, so there is no each-way case here. Gore Point is the pick and the reasoning is straightforward. Two wins on the spin, trip and going already proven, and Anthony Honeyball’s yard is running at 20% at this course historically. Sam Twiston-Davies knows Newton Abbot well, posting a 23% strike rate here. The weight of 168lb is the one question mark, but at rated 116 he is a cut above Manyana Blue (104) and Miss Denver (97) in this company.

Manyana Blue returns from 257 days off the track. That alone makes her difficult to trust at market prices, however consistent her record looks on paper. Miss Denver has been progressive and the 12-day turnaround is fine, but rated 97 she faces a stiff task giving weight and ability away to the favourite.

Gore Point at 4/7 is not a price that excites, but he is a near-certainty on form and fitness grounds in a race that barely constitutes a field.

4:12 — Par Inn Handicap Chase (2m5f)

Selection: It’s A Breeze (2/1 Boyle Sports, 2/1 LiveScore Bet)

This is the most interesting race on the card from a value perspective. It’s A Breeze is trained by Paul Nicholls, who remains the dominant force at Newton Abbot with a 28% strike rate from nearly 1,000 runners. Freddie Gingell takes the ride, and he posts an impressive 25% win rate at this course, the best of any jockey in the data. That trainer-jockey combination at this track deserves respect.

The form reads 26F-P4 and yes, a fall and a pulled-up effort sit in there. The inconsistency is the obvious concern, and there is no point pretending otherwise. But the 40-day freshener may sharpen him, the trip is proven, and at 2/1 with Nicholls saddling and Gingell riding at a course where both excel, there is value in the price relative to what you are getting.

Limerick Leader is the market leader and has been admirably consistent without ever winning. Nick Scholfield’s yard is winless from 13 runners in the last 14 days, which is a cold stat. The Gypsy Davey is rated highest at 112 but the recent form figures make grim reading. Ellerton has ability but carries 168lb off a 47-day break.

It’s A Breeze is not a banker, but the course angles are compelling and the price is generous.

4:42 — William Hill Handicap Chase (3m2f)

Selection: Muskerry Rock (11/10 Boyle Sports, 11/10 LiveScore Bet)

Five runners means two places are on offer, and each-way is worth considering in a 3m2f staying chase. But the main case here is win-only on Muskerry Rock with Harry Skelton aboard for the red-hot Dan Skelton stable.

The Skelton yard has been firing at an extraordinary rate lately, 13 winners from 27 runners in the last 14 days. That is the kind of yard form that forces you to take short prices seriously. Muskerry Rock has won within this current sequence, been placed three more times from his other four starts, and has proven form at today’s distance. He returns fit from a 24-day break rather than cold off a lengthy absence.

Harry Skelton’s Newton Abbot record of 19% winners is respectable, though the A/E of 0.75 tells you the market usually underestimates him slightly. At 11/10 though, the yard form and the horse’s recent consistency do the heavy lifting.

Presentandcounting has been placed consistently but has not won in five starts, and Donald McCain’s stable is cold right now at 0/11 in the last fortnight. Slaney Opera sits bottom on figures despite a fair market price. Belgarum has claims but Tizzard’s recent numbers are thin.

Muskerry Rock to win, at 11/10 with Boyle Sports or LiveScore Bet.

Today’s NAP

Muskerry Rock — William Hill Handicap Chase (4:42, Newton Abbot)
Odds: 11/10 — Boyle Sports (others: 11/10 LiveScore Bet)

The Skelton yard is in the form of its life with 13 winners from 27 runners in the past fortnight, and Muskerry Rock brings a solid recent profile to a race where his rivals have question marks around trainer form, fitness, or consistency. Proven at the trip, fit from a 24-day break, and with Harry Skelton riding, this is the strongest angle on the card. At 11/10 it is not a generous price, but the confidence here is high enough to back it as a win single.