Nexo Championship Betting Tips | August 2026

DP World Tour

The DP World Tour heads to Trump International Golf Links for the Nexo Championship, where a field of emerging European talents and seasoned DP World Tour campaigners will battle it out on Scotland’s rugged west coast. Grant Forrest took the title last year with a dominant four-shot victory, and this year’s renewal promises another stern test of links golf, with the Scottish coastline offering little mercy to wayward iron play or tentative putting.

The betting market presents some notable opportunities this week, with several players priced well beyond what our ratings suggest. The course demands precision from tee to green and a delicate touch around the greens, the hallmarks of links golf that separate pretenders from genuine contenders. With each-way terms at 1/5 odds for five places, there’s scope to back longer prices with confidence.

Outright Favourites

Eugenio Chacarra heads the market at a best-priced 2500/1 with bet365, though that astronomical figure feels misjudged. Our analysis puts him at a 6.2% chance of victory, closer to 15/1 implied odds, making the market price genuinely absurd. The Spaniard leads this field in win probability and carries a solid 83% chance of making the cut. His game suits the demands of Trump International, particularly his ability to control trajectory in coastal winds. At 2500/1, this is a clear anomaly worth exploiting, though 5000/1 at DraftKings borders on the comical.

Rasmus Hojgaard comes in at 20/1 with bet365, a price that aligns more sensibly with expectations. We have him at 5.0% to win, bang on 19/1 implied, so there’s marginal value at the available 20/1. The Dane has shown consistent ball-striking throughout the season and boasts a 79% probability of making the weekend. His measured approach play should serve him well on a layout where course management trumps brute force.

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen sits third in our ratings at 4.9% win probability, translating to 19/1 implied odds. Bookmaker prices remain to be confirmed, but if he drifts beyond 22/1, there’s a play to be made. Another Scandinavian threat, Neergaard-Petersen brings an 80% cut probability and a 29% chance of a top-ten finish, numbers that suggest he’ll be in the mix come Sunday.

Each-Way Value

Oliver Lindell at 60/1 with William Hill represents genuine each-way appeal. Each-Way We rate him at 22/1 implied (4.3% win probability), meaning the bookies have left nearly three times the value on the table. His 28% top-ten probability and 79% cut likelihood make the each-way fraction particularly attractive. Lindell’s consistency on the DP World Tour this season hasn’t translated into headline finishes, but the fundamentals are sound, and this price feels lazy from the layers.

Jacob Skov Olesen offers another intriguing each-way proposition at 150/1 with Betway. Each-Way Our numbers have him at 36/1 implied (2.7% win probability), a significant edge over the market assessment. With a 21% top-ten chance and 74% cut probability, he profiles as exactly the type of player who can sneak into the places without threatening the outright favourites. The each-way cushion at these odds provides excellent protection for a player capable of a quiet week in the top five.

Ewen Ferguson merits consideration at 35/1 with bet365. Each-Way The Scot knows these conditions intimately, and while we rate him at 49/1 implied (2.0% win probability), suggesting slight overvaluation, his 72% cut probability and home advantage make the each-way angle worthwhile. Ferguson has shown glimpses of quality this season, and a links test on home soil could spark something. At 35/1, there’s enough margin for error with the places covered.

Players to Watch

• Grant Forrest – The defending champion will carry confidence after last year’s commanding victory, though he doesn’t appear among the statistical leaders this week
• Caleb Surratt – Priced at a remarkably short 9/1 with Sky Bet despite our model rating him at 49/1 implied (2.0% win probability). That’s a glaring disconnect, and one to avoid at the odds
• Thorbjorn Olesen – Available at 5000/1 with bet365, another pricing anomaly given we have him at 42/1 implied (2.3% win probability). The market seems confused on several Danish and Nordic players this week

Our Pick