Norway vs Senegal Betting Tips 2026

Form Coming In

Norway arrive at MetLife Stadium in decent shape. That 4-1 win over Iraq in their Group Stage opener was the kind of performance that sets a tone, and while the pre-tournament friendlies were mixed, there’s enough in the recent run to feel good about their chances here. They beat Sweden 3-1 at home, and the defeat to the Netherlands was away from home and competitive enough. Nine goals scored across the last five matches tells you this is an attack with real teeth, particularly with Erling Haaland leading the line alongside Alexander Sørloth and Jørgen Strand Larsen. That is a front line most teams at this tournament would take.

Senegal’s picture is less convincing. They opened their World Cup campaign with a 1-3 loss to France, and a draw with Saudi Arabia and a defeat to the USA in pre-tournament action don’t inspire much confidence away from home. They can score, eight goals in five games shows that, but seven conceded in the same stretch points to a back line that can be got at. Sadio Mané and Nicolas Jackson give them genuine attacking threat, but they need to be far more solid defensively if they’re going to compete here.

Team News

Both squads look to be at full strength heading into this one, with no notable absences expected on either side.

Goals Markets

The numbers lean heavily towards a game with goals. Norway have scored nine and conceded five across their last five, while Senegal have shipped seven in theirs. Senegal’s backline has looked fragile at times, and Norway’s attack is well equipped to expose that. With Over 2.5 Goals priced at 1.95 and Under also at 1.95, the market is perfectly split, but the form data gives you a reason to lean over. Both Teams to Score also looks a reasonable angle given Senegal have shown enough going forward to find the net, particularly through Mané and Jackson.

The Betting Angle

Norway at 2.36 to win this is the standout. The statistical model backs them as favourites, the form backs them, and Senegal come into this off the back of a Group Stage defeat that will have hurt morale. Facing a Norway side with Haaland at the top of it is not the ideal recovery scenario.

Haaland at 4.00 for first goalscorer is short but understandable given the striker’s quality. If you want something with a bit more meat on the bone, Sørloth at 7.50 first scorer is worth a look as a secondary option given how much he contributes in build-up and runs in behind.

Senegal will need a strong performance from their attackers to stay in this. Jackson has the pace and movement to cause problems on the counter, but Norway’s defensive setup has only let in five in five games. This feels like a Norway win, and the Poisson model puts their win probability at 50 per cent against a Senegal side showing 0 per cent. That gap matters.