Nottingham Forest 
Aston Villa Forest Riding High, But Villa Have Teeth
Nottingham Forest head into this one with genuine momentum and something to play for on multiple fronts. Vítor Pereira's side drew 1-1 with FC Porto in the Europa League quarter-final first leg on Wednesday, which keeps everything alive heading into the second leg. Before that, they dismantled Tottenham 3-0 away from home. That's a serious result on the road, and it tells you something about how Forest are travelling right now.
The problem is that City Ground form has been patchier. A 0-0 draw with Fulham and a 0-1 home defeat to Midtjylland in the league and Europa League respectively show Forest aren't untouchable in front of their own fans. Still, the squad is in good shape and Unai Emery will know this is a hostile place to come.
Aston Villa arrive with four wins from their last five. They beat Bologna 3-1 in Europe, saw off West Ham 2-0 and Lille twice across the Europa League knockout rounds. The only blemish is a 1-3 defeat at Manchester United, which probably says more about United at home than any structural flaw in Villa's game. Emery's side carry genuine quality in both boxes and they've been clinical going forward.
Head-to-Head: Villa Own This Fixture Recently
The recent head-to-head record makes uncomfortable reading if you're backing Forest. Villa won 3-1 at Villa Park back in January this season, and they also took a 2-1 win there in April 2025. Scroll back to December 2024 and Forest did win 2-1 at the City Ground, so home advantage has counted for something. But the broader trend tilts Emery's way.
Go back to last season and Villa put four past Forest in a 4-2 win at Villa Park. These matches tend to have goals in them. Three of the last five have produced at least three goals, and only the November 2023 meeting, a 2-0 Forest win, could be described as a clean, low-scoring affair. The Premier League contest from January 2026 this season ended 3-1, which fits the pattern perfectly.
News filtering through suggests Jadon Sancho's availability for Villa is a talking point heading into this one, which would give Emery an extra attacking option off the bench or from the start.
Key Players and the Betting Angle
Morgan Gibbs-White is the name to watch for Forest. Nine goals and two assists in 31 appearances this season makes him their engine and their biggest creative threat. If Forest are going to nick this, he'll be involved. Callum Hudson-Odoi and Igor Jesus have both chipped in with three goals and three assists apiece, so the attacking depth is there.
Both squads look fully available for this one, which means both managers pick from strength.
The odds are remarkably tight here. Aston Villa are fractionally favoured at 2.78 to Forest's 2.84, with the draw at 3.45. Given Villa's superior recent H2H record and their current form across Europe and the Premier League, there's a case for backing them to continue that dominance. But the bigger angle is the goals market. Over 2.5 at 2.04 looks generous given how these sides have been scoring lately and the history between them.
Forest have scored six and conceded three in their last five. Villa have scored nine and conceded four. The January Premier League meeting this season finished 3-1. The April 2025 fixture was 2-1. The December 2024 game at City Ground was 2-1. You're looking at a match that consistently produces goals, and both squads have the firepower to deliver again on Sunday afternoon.
Over 2.5 at 2.04 is the value play here, sitting comfortably above the magic 2.00 threshold and backed up by a stack of evidence pointing the same direction.
Odds: 2.04 — LeoVegas (SE)
Four of the last five meetings between these sides have ended with at least three goals, including the 3-1 result from their Premier League clash earlier this season. Forest are averaging goals at both ends of the pitch across their last five, and Villa have been ruthless in attack, scoring nine times in their most recent five games. This match has goals written all over it.
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