Nottingham, Sunday 31 May: Tips and Analysis

Nottingham, Sunday 31 May: Tips and Analysis

A seven-race card at Nottingham on good ground, and there are three races worth getting stuck into. The flat track here suits horses that travel well through a race and finish off properly, and on good ground today the pace angles will be important. Three handicaps with small fields give us a decent chance to find value without drowning in a sea of runners.

3:55 — Wildwest Beer Festival 4th July Fillies’ Handicap (5f)

Selection: Time To Take Off — 9/4 Boyle Sports, Betfred, LiveScore Bet

James Doyle gets the call here, and the jockey is a 21% winner at this track with an A/E of 1.03 across 326 rides. That kind of consistency from a top pilot matters in a seven-runner sprint. The horse herself won a course-and-distance maiden on debut last October on good to soft ground, and that form has since been franked. Twice beaten in novice company this spring sounds modest, but she’s been running against horses who are potentially ahead of their handicap marks. Now she steps into handicaps for the first time, rated 82, and James Tate is a 17% trainer at this venue with a yard that knows how to place its horses. The yard hasn’t been firing at its peak over the last fortnight but this looks an ideal opportunity for a filly with upside. At 9/4, she’s the market leader, but the case is legitimate: C&D form, a top jockey booked, and the switch to handicap company should free her up.

If you want a value alternative, Ruby’s Profit at 10/3 deserves respect. Jack Doughty is 24% at Nottingham with an A/E of 2.08, which is exceptional. The Spotlight notes trouble at Chester last time and a drop into Class 4 today. She’s won two 5f handicaps previously and this trip is her absolute bread and butter.

4:25 — Dine In Sherwoods Restaurant Handicap (1m6f)

Selection: Two Plus Two — 10/3 Boyle Sports, 10/3 Betfred, 3/1 LiveScore Bet

This one is compelling. Two Plus Two was off for a year, came back, and has just bolted up in a 1m6f handicap at Bath nine days ago. Yes, he goes up 3lb, but a gutsy front-runner who wins like that after 12 months off the track is likely to improve again as fitness sharpens. The concern is the short turnaround, but Ed de Giles had him primed at Bath and the yard is 1/5 in the last 14 days, suggesting they’re placing horses deliberately. At 10/3, this price is workable for a horse arriving here in form.

The danger is Tupero at 7/4, who is in superb nick for David O’Meara, winning at Redcar 24 days ago and up just 4lb. David Nolan rides. That’s a solid each-way case if you want to cover both, but Two Plus Two at the bigger price has the front-running profile that this track can reward, and bath form over this trip is often solid.

4:55 — British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap (1m2f)

Selection: Sharp Romance — 9/4 Boyle Sports, 9/4 Betfred, 2/1 LiveScore Bet

Saffie Osborne takes the ride, and she’s 16% at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.24, showing genuine course competence. Sharp Romance is lightly raced, won an all-weather maiden, then ran an excellent race on handicap debut at Newmarket over this exact trip on good ground. The Spotlight notes she saw plenty of daylight ahead of her, meaning the result flattered the race somewhat, and she’s gone up only 2lb. Philip McBride hasn’t had runners firing in the last fortnight, but this filly’s profile stands on its own: good ground form, the right trip, a progressive profile, and a penalty that barely registers. She’s the one to beat.

Shady Bay at 9/2 also warrants attention. Tom Ward is 24% at this course with an A/E of 1.52, the best trainer stat on the card today. Shady Bay won over course and distance a month ago on good ground and is 3-1-1 here in total. The 5lb rise is the only question, but the Spotlight points out previous defeats at that mark came elsewhere, not at Nottingham. Each-way at least.

Today’s NAP

Sharp Romance — British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap (4:55, Nottingham)
Odds: 2/1 — LiveScore Bet (others: 9/4 Boyle Sports, 9/4 Betfred)

Lightly raced and progressive, Sharp Romance produced a big handicap debut performance at Newmarket over this exact trip on good ground and is punished with a mere 2lb rise. Saffie Osborne is 16% at Nottingham with a strong A/E, and the filly has more improvement to come from just three career starts. Good ground suits, the mile-and-two trip is proven, and the market is right to make her favourite. The 2/1 available at LiveScore Bet is the best available and represents the standout value on the card today.