Nottingham, 30 July 2026 — Good To Firm Tips

Nottingham, 30 July 2026 — Good To Firm Tips

A quiet midweek card at Nottingham but there are angles worth taking seriously. The ground is Good To Firm throughout, which suits horses with a proven preference for quick conditions. Three races stand out for selection purposes, and the trainer and jockey course stats at this track give us a useful steer on who is likely to show up ready to run.

2:00 — European Breeders Fund EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes (5f, Good To Firm)

Two runners, so no each-way bet makes sense here. This is a straight head-to-head between Funky Dory (Evens, K.R. Burke) and Roots In Touche (4/6, Adrian Keatley).

Roots In Touche is the jolly on the back of a form line that reads 2-4, so she has hit the frame twice and clearly handles this level. Keatley has been in decent nick over the past fortnight with 3 winners from 14 runners. That makes the 4/6 entirely fair.

The value, however, sits with Funky Dory. K.R. Burke consistently produces well-prepped debutantes and gets them fit to go close first time out. Evens about a Burke-trained two-year-old on debut over five furlongs in a two-runner race is not a price to dismiss. Clifford Lee takes the ride and Burke’s 14-day strike rate of 10 from 33 shows the yard is firing hard right now.

Selection: Funky Dory at Evens (BoyleSports, Betfred)

3:10 — Download The Oddschecker App Handicap Stakes (1m2f, Good To Firm)

Five runners, two places paid, so each-way betting is not applicable. This shapes up as a genuine puzzle, but the form figures point in one clear direction.

Supplicate (5/4 favourite) has three wins in her recent starts but a 69-day absence is a serious query and the expert figures have her rated bottom of this field. Betting into that combination at 5/4 is not the play.

The angle here is Affection at 16/1. Yes, the David Pipe yard has had a quiet 14 days with just 1 winner from 10, but the form book tells you something different. Affection is the top-rated runner in the field on these figures. She has won twice in recent starts, was placed last time out, and has the crucial experience over today’s trip and going. A 37-day break is manageable for a filly already proven fit to compete at this level, and 16/1 is a significant overestimate of her chance.

Crown Office (11/4, William Haggas, Cieren Fallon) deserves respect. Haggas is running at 6 from 34 over the past fortnight and Fallon has solid course form at Nottingham. The form line of 51-046 is inconsistent, though, and 11/4 does not represent value in a five-runner race where the top-rated runner is available at 16/1.

Sassicaia (10/3, Owen Burrows) is interesting. Burrows is a 27% trainer at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.26, which is a strong course record, and the comment data suggests untapped potential. He is a solid each-way alternative in theory, but with only two places paid in a five-runner field the each-way case collapses.

Selection: Affection at 16/1 (BoyleSports, Betfred)

3:45 — EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (1m½f, Good To Firm)

Five runners, and while two places are paid, the fields and prices need to justify an each-way play. This race has a clear shortlist.

Queen’s Hame (2/1, William Haggas, Cieren Fallon) makes plenty of appeal. A debut second on her only start is exactly the profile Haggas brings forward for a novice conditions race. The Haggas yard has sent out 6 winners from 34 runners in the past 14 days, and Cieren Fallon at Nottingham has a 17% strike rate at the course. Fallon on a Haggas horse ready to progress past her debut placing is a strong combination.

Marquessofanglesey (13/8 favourite, Callum Rodriguez, Charles Hills) has the most experience in the field with a form line of 6-3-2-5, but has yet to win and drifts towards the wrong end of that sequence. 13/8 about a horse still searching for his first win in a novice looks short.

Salvezza (9/2, Ed Walker) is worth monitoring. Walker has been in excellent form with 9 winners from 37 over the past two weeks, and an unraced or lightly tried colt from a hot yard on quick ground is never to be ignored entirely.

Queen’s Hame gets the vote. The combination of a powerful trainer in form, a jockey who knows the course, and a filly with a clear line of improvement to find makes her the standout at a fair price.

Selection: Queen’s Hame at 2/1 (BoyleSports, LiveScore Bet)

Today’s NAP

Affection — Download The Oddschecker App Handicap Stakes (3:10, Nottingham)
Odds: 16/1 — BoyleSports (others: 16/1 Betfred, 14/1 LiveScore Bet)

The top-rated runner in a five-horse field at 16/1 is an angle that does not come along often. Affection has won twice recently, was placed last time out, and brings genuine experience over today’s trip and going. The market has overreacted to a 37-day break and a trainer whose recent numbers are modest. On pure form credentials she should be considerably shorter than this, and that is exactly where NAP value lives.