PGA Championship Betting Tips | May 2026

The PGA Championship heads to Aronimink Golf Club for the first time in major championship history, with the storied Philadelphia layout set to pose a stringent examination of accuracy and iron play. At 7,282 yards and par 70, this tree-lined Pennsylvania test rewards precision over power, with tight fairways punishing wayward drivers and small greens demanding crisp approach work. Scottie Scheffler arrives as defending champion and overwhelming favourite, but the first-timer venue and demanding conditions open the door for upset value.

Outright Favourites

Scottie Scheffler dominates the market at 9/2 with Bet365, and it’s difficult to argue. Our analysis gives him a 13.8% win probability, which translates to roughly 6/1 implied odds. That makes 5/1 a shade short, but his sheer consistency makes him a factor in every major he tees up in. With a 53% top-10 probability and 92% cut rate, Scheffler is the man to beat. His ball-striking credentials suit Aronimink’s demands perfectly, though the lack of course history keeps this from being a banker price.

Rory McIlroy sits second in the betting at 9/1 with Sky Bet, a price that holds genuine appeal. We rate his chances at 7.6%, which is around 12/1 implied, meaning the market may be slightly overrating him on name value. Still, McIlroy’s iron play remains elite, and his top-10 probability of 39% suggests he’ll be in the mix come Sunday. The Northern Irishman’s major drought continues, but this old-school layout should suit his classic game. At 9/1, he’s a bet with your heart selection rather than a mathematical steal.

Jon Rahm rounds out the short-priced trio at 16/1 with William Hill, and this is where the value conversation starts. Our ratings put him at exactly 16/1 implied, making this a fair price rather than generous. Rahm’s 6.0% win probability and 36% top-10 rate keep him firmly in the conversation, but amid ongoing uncertainty about LIV Golf’s future funding, his focus could be split. If you’re backing the Spaniard, take the each-way route with 1/4 odds over five places.

Each-Way Value

Cameron Young at 16/1 with Betfred Each-Way represents the standout bet of the week. BonusDevil’s ratings give him a 5.9% chance, the same 16/1 implied as Rahm, yet Young sits fourth in our model and offers superior value in some books. His top-10 probability of 34% is elite, and his game is built for tight, tree-lined courses where wayward shots cost dearly. Young’s ball-striking metrics rank among the field’s best, and at 16/1 with five places paid, he’s the each-way play of the championship.

Matt Fitzpatrick at 25/1 with Bet365 Each-Way is another worth serious consideration. We have him at 3.1% win probability, which is around 31/1 implied, making 27/1 a decent overlay. Fitzpatrick’s meticulous course management and elite iron play are tailor-made for Aronimink’s demands. His 25% top-10 probability isn’t spectacular, but at this price with 1/4 odds over five places, he offers compelling each-way value. Fitzpatrick thrives on precision layouts, and this should suit him better than most.

Tommy Fleetwood at 33/1 with Paddy Power Each-Way is a longer-priced alternative worth a small play. Our model rates him at 2.2%, around 44/1 implied, so the 32/1 market price is flattering. Still, Fleetwood’s 20% top-10 probability and 79% cut rate suggest he’ll be competitive deep into the weekend. His accuracy off the tee and consistency around tight courses make him a live danger, even if the outright odds are a touch short. At this price, he’s an each-way saver rather than a serious title threat.

Players to Watch

Scottie Scheffler defends his 2025 title and arrives as the man to beat. His dominance in major championships over recent seasons has been relentless, and Aronimink’s demands play directly into his strengths. Whether 5/1 offers genuine value is debatable, but his presence at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday feels inevitable.

Ludvig Aberg at 20/1 with Coral continues to turn heads in major championships. BonusDevil’s ratings give him a 4.1% chance (around 23/1 implied), making this price about right rather than generous. His 28% top-10 probability keeps him firmly in the conversation, and his fearless approach to pressure moments makes him a compelling watch.

Bryson DeChambeau at 22/1 with Betway offers intrigue on a course that doesn’t naturally suit his power game. We rate him at 3.0% (32/1 implied), suggesting the market is pricing in his major pedigree. His 22% top-10 probability is respectable, but Aronimink’s tree-lined fairways could neutralise his length advantage. One to watch rather than back.

Our Pick