PGA Championship Betting Tips | May 2026

Major

The PGA Championship returns to new ground in 2026 as Aronimink Golf Club in Pennsylvania hosts a major for the first time. This tree-lined, 7,282-yard par 70 demands precision over power, the kind of layout where wayward drives get punished and clean ball-striking earns rewards. Scottie Scheffler arrives as defending champion after his 2025 triumph, but the betting suggests this year's renewal is wide open. With no course history to lean on, the field will need to solve Aronimink on the fly, making strokes-gained data and current form the sharpest tools for finding value.

Outright Favourites

Rory McIlroy heads the market at 6.25/1 with BetOnline (also 6.15/1 BetCris, 6.03/1 Pinnacle), and the Northern Irishman's profile fits Aronimink's demands perfectly. Our analysis gives him an 11.2% win probability, closer to 8/1 implied, so there's reasonable value at those prices. McIlroy's strokes-gained numbers show elite approach play and scrambling, exactly what's needed on a tight, tree-lined course. The 50% top-10 probability tells you he's a solid floor play for each-way shoppers, though at cramped odds you're banking on the win.

Cameron Young sits at 10/1 with PointsBet (9.89/1 Pinnacle, 9.5/1 Bovada) and represents stronger value. We have him at 8.0% to win, around 12/1 implied, making double-figure odds appealing. Young's ball-striking has been exceptional, ranking among the field leaders in strokes-gained approach and off-the-tee. He's proven he can contend in majors without crumbling, and Aronimink's accuracy test plays to his methodical strengths. The 43% top-10 rate adds comfort to an each-way play.

Xander Schauffele at 11/1 with DraftKings (10.5/1 PointsBet, 10/1 BetMGM) carries a 7.4% win probability, roughly 12/1 implied. Schauffele's major pedigree is undeniable, and his iron play ranks elite across strokes-gained metrics. He thrives on courses that reward patience and precision, and Aronimink fits that template. At 11/1, you're getting fair odds on a player with a proven major ceiling.

Each-Way Value

Matt Fitzpatrick at 17/1 with BetOnline (16.5/1 BetCris, 16.5/1 DraftKings) offers genuine each-way appeal. Each-Way Our ratings put him at 4.7% to win, around 20/1 implied, so 17/1 represents a generous price. Fitzpatrick's strokes-gained profile shows elite accuracy and scrambling, the exact toolkit for navigating Aronimink's tree-lined corridors. His 34% top-10 probability makes the place portion of the bet appealing at 1/4 odds over five spots. This is a player built for tight, technical tracks, and the market has underestimated his fit here.

Ludvig Aberg at 17/1 with PointsBet (16/1 DraftKings, 15.5/1 BetCris) deserves serious each-way consideration. Each-Way We have him at 4.3% to win, closer to 22/1, making 17/1 a steal. Aberg's strokes-gained approach numbers are exceptional, and his ability to adapt to unfamiliar courses has been impressive. The 30% top-10 rate adds security to the each-way component. At this price, you're backing elite ball-striking with room for error in the place market.

Si Woo Kim at 28/1 with BetOnline (26.5/1 BetCris, 25/1 Bet365) is worth a speculative each-way ticket. Each-Way BonusDevil's ratings give him a 3.3% chance, around 29/1 implied, so the market price is fair rather than generous. But Kim's strokes-gained scrambling and short game rank among the field's best, critical weapons when Aronimink's accuracy demands inevitably force players into recovery mode. The 28% top-10 probability keeps the place bet live.

Players to Watch

• Scottie Scheffler (defending champion): Returns as the man to beat after lifting the Wanamaker Trophy in 2025. His elite all-round game and mental fortitude make him a constant threat, though odds will be tight.
• Tommy Fleetwood (28/1 Bovada): The Englishman's ball-striking consistency and major pedigree can't be ignored. At 3.0% win probability and 26% top-10 rate, he's a solid floor play for place bets.
• Hideki Matsuyama (45/1 BetOnline): Elite iron play and a proven major winner. At 2.0% to win and 21% top-10, the price offers value if you believe he can find his best form on a course that suits precision hitters.

Our Pick