Portsmouth 
Birmingham City Fratton Park Form vs Midlands Ambition
Portsmouth are fighting to stay in this division. Sitting 18th with 54 points, John Mousinho's side have been inconsistent all season but arrive into this one carrying some confidence after winning four of their last five. That Coventry hammering, a 5-1 loss away, looks like the obvious blip in an otherwise decent recent run. Three wins on the bounce before that Stoke result last week, and Segecic leading the line with 9 goals in 37 appearances gives them a focal point up top.
Birmingham are the visitors and they are not here to be tourists. Chris Davies has them sitting 10th on 63 points with a genuine home fortress record, 12 wins from 23 at St Andrew's, but that away form tells a different story entirely. Five wins, four draws, thirteen losses on the road. They have not travelled well this season, and that is a big number to ignore at 2.43.
Injuries and Team News
Portsmouth head into this with no confirmed injury concerns, which is good news for Mousinho as he looks to keep the squad intact for the run-in.
Birmingham are in more trouble. Marvin Ducksch is missing, and that one stings. He has scored 10 goals in 33 appearances this season and is one of their most dangerous presences in the final third. Tyler Roberts is also out, another player who has contributed across 35 appearances, along with Kanya Fujimoto. Three confirmed absences is a problem for any side, but losing your joint-top scorer away from home is particularly damaging. Recent reports from the Birmingham Mail also suggest one of their players faces an injury nightmare with a transfer decision looming, which only adds to the uncertainty around the squad's depth.
Head-to-Head Context
The most recent meeting between these two came in November 2025, when Birmingham put four past Portsmouth at home. Convincing, but that was at St Andrew's and this is Fratton Park. Before that, you have to go back to 2012 for Championship meetings at this ground, and history from that far back tells you very little about what happens at 12:30 on Saturday. The November result is relevant only in the sense that Birmingham know they can hurt Pompey. Stripped of Ducksch, the question is whether they can replicate it on the road.
The Betting Angle
Birmingham at 2.43 to win this away from home, without Ducksch and with the worst away record in the top half of the Championship, is a price that asks you to ignore too much. Yes, they are the better side on paper over the course of the season. But Portsmouth are at home, they have momentum, and the visitors are weakened in exactly the area where they cause the most damage.
Mousinho's side have won their last two at Fratton Park, keeping clean sheets in both. Segecic, Devlin and Swift are all capable of causing problems against a Birmingham defence that will be reshuffled given the absentees. The draw at 3.75 is tempting, but Portsmouth's home crowd at a noon Saturday kick-off with the team showing fight at the wrong end of the table is exactly the kind of environment where they can nick three points.
Over 2.5 Goals at 1.78 is also worth a look given both sides have been scoring freely in their last five, and the last time these two met we saw four goals. But the value play is Portsmouth to win. Home form, injury-hit visitors, poor away record from Birmingham. That 3.2 is bigger than it should be.
Odds: 3.2 โ LeoVegas (SE)
Birmingham are weakened up front without Ducksch, and their away record this season is poor regardless. Portsmouth have won their last two at Fratton Park and carry enough momentum and home advantage to make this count. At 3.2, there is genuine value here.