Portsmouth 
Birmingham City League Position Tells the Story
Portsmouth are 18th in the Championship table with 54 points, and while John Mousinho's side have shown some fight in recent weeks, their season has been a grind. Birmingham City sit comfortably in 10th on 63 points under Chris Davies, and that nine-point gap reflects a significant difference in quality across the campaign.
Pompey's home record is far from a fortress. Eight wins, five draws and nine losses at Fratton Park tells you this isn't a side you need to fear on their own patch. Birmingham, meanwhile, have been outstanding at St Andrew's with 12 home wins, but their away form is the flip side of that coin: five wins, four draws and 13 defeats on the road. So both sets of supporters have reasons to feel nervous heading into Saturday's 12:30 kickoff.
Form Guide
Portsmouth's recent run is genuinely interesting. Four wins from five, including a 3-1 away win at Stoke and a 1-0 home victory over Leicester. The blip was a 5-1 hammering at Coventry that you'd want to park quickly. Eight goals scored and six conceded across those five matches suggests they can play, but that defensive frailty hasn't gone away.
Birmingham have been ticking along nicely too. Back-to-back home wins over Bristol City and Preston, both 2-1, bookend a run of four points from their last three. They've scored eight and conceded five in that stretch, with the only defeat a narrow 2-1 loss at Ipswich on the road.
Top scorer Jayden Stansfield leads the line with 10 goals and six assists in 43 appearances this season, and Marvin Ducksch matches him on 10 goals from 33 apps. The depth is there. Pompey's best hope up front is Ante Segecic, who has nine goals and four assists in 37 appearances, and he'll need to be at his best.
Injuries and Team News
This is where the picture gets more complicated. Portsmouth are missing Colby Bishop, Conor Shaughnessy and Ibane Bowat. Bishop, who has three goals and one assist this season, is not a figure you'd call prolific but losing another attacking option when your scoring depth is already thin matters. Shaughnessy's absence weakens the defensive shape too.
Birmingham have their own problems. Ducksch is ruled out, which is a major loss given he's joint top scorer. Tyler Roberts and Kanya Fujimoto are also unavailable. That's a significant chunk of their attacking and midfield options gone, and it arguably levels things up more than the table positions suggest.
Head-to-Head
The most relevant H2H result here is Birmingham's 4-0 win over Portsmouth back in November, when these sides met at St Andrew's earlier in the 2025/26 season. That was a statement performance from Davies' men on home turf. The other results on record are too old to carry much weight, with the 2019 League Cup tie and the 2012 Championship fixtures from a completely different era for both clubs.
Birmingham clearly got the better of this fixture when they hosted it earlier in the season. The question is whether Pompey's improved form and Birmingham's injury issues change the dynamic at Fratton Park.
The Betting Angle
Ducksch missing is genuinely significant for Birmingham. He's 10 goals in 33 league appearances, and without him, their attack looks thinner. Portsmouth at home, riding four wins from five, have genuine momentum. The table flatters Birmingham on the road anyway, 13 away defeats tells you they're beatable when they travel.
At 2.54, Portsmouth to win offers some value. They're not a side anyone would back blindly, but the combination of home advantage, strong recent form, and Birmingham's most dangerous forward unavailable creates a case. The draw at 3.65 isn't without merit given how unpredictable both defences are, but backing the hosts at this price makes more sense than laying them.
Odds: 2.54 โ LeoVegas (SE)
Portsmouth have won four of their last five and carry real momentum at Fratton Park. Birmingham are without Ducksch, their joint top scorer, which blunts their attack considerably on the road where they've already lost 13 times this season. Mousinho's side to take the points at a price worth backing.