Rb Leipzig 
Union Berlin Form Check: Leipzig Flying, Union Struggling
RB Leipzig arrive at the Red Bull Arena on Friday night in blistering form. Four wins from their last five Bundesliga matches, including a 5-0 hammering of Hoffenheim and a 3-1 win away at Eintracht Frankfurt, tells you everything about where Ole Werner's side are right now. The only blip in that run was a 1-0 defeat at Stuttgart, and even that looks like a minor stumble from a team that's racked up 11 goals in those five games while conceding just three.
Union Berlin are in the opposite direction entirely. Marie-Louise Eta's side have lost three of their last five, including a 4-0 thrashing away at Bayern and a 3-1 defeat at Heidenheim. They drew 1-1 at home to St. Pauli and managed a 1-0 win at Freiburg, but a return of four goals scored and ten conceded across five matches is not the profile of a team about to cause an upset. Sitting 11th with a goal difference of -18, they're miles off Leipzig's level right now.
Injuries and Team News
Leipzig are missing Lukas Klostermann, Benjamin Henrichs, and Tidiam Gomis, all listed as absent for this fixture. On Union's side, Diogo Leite, Josip Juranoviฤ, and Andrรกs Schรคfer are all out. Given Leipzig's squad depth compared to Union's, the absentees hurt the visitors more.
Y. Diomande and Christoph Baumgartner have both hit 12 goals in the Bundesliga this season, 29 appearances each. That's a genuinely dangerous double threat through the middle, and with Rรดmulo chipping in 8 goals from 26 appearances as well, Leipzig have firepower across the front line. Union's top scorers, R. Khedira, Ilyas Ansah, and Oliver Burke, are all on five goals for the season. The gap in attacking quality is stark.
Head-to-Head Context
The recent head-to-head record adds a layer of nuance. Union won 3-1 at home against Leipzig back in December 2025, which will give them some belief. Before that, the two sides drew 0-0 at Union's ground in February 2025, and the September 2024 meeting at the Red Bull Arena also ended goalless. So Leipzig haven't always had it their own way in this fixture.
That said, Leipzig did win 2-0 at home in February 2024, and the overall direction of this season's form points firmly one way. A surprise Union result in December doesn't change the fact that they've since shipped ten goals in five games and are sitting ninth in the bottom half of the table.
The Betting Angle
At 1.38, Leipzig to win isn't exactly an adventurous bet, but the case for it is solid. They're third in the Bundesliga with 59 points, their home record reads W10 D2 L3, and they're facing a Union side that has won just four away games all season. Union's away record of W4 D2 L9 is grim reading. Their goal difference on the road is almost certainly contributing heavily to that -18 overall.
The goals market is interesting too. Over 2.5 at 1.50 has appeal given Leipzig's attacking output and Union's porous defensive recent form. But if you want the cleaner play, Leipzig to win covers the core of the argument. Werner has this team in a groove, the firepower is there, and Union look short of the energy and personnel to contain them at the Red Bull Arena.
Back Leipzig to win. It's short, but it's earned.
Odds: 1.38 โ BoyleSports
Leipzig have won four of their last five Bundesliga matches, scoring freely at both ends of the pitch, and their home record this season is excellent. Union Berlin are arriving on the back of three defeats in five, with a dismal away record and a squad missing key players. This one points in one direction.