RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin Betting Preview, Tips & Odds | 24 April 2026

RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin: Bundesliga Preview

Leipzig head into Friday night in electric form. Four wins on the bounce in the Bundesliga, with 11 goals scored in their last five and only three conceded. Ole Werner has this side playing with real purpose, and the Red Bull Arena has been a fortress this season: W10 D2 L3 at home. The one blip was a 1-0 loss at Stuttgart, and even that looks like a distant memory now.

Union Berlin, by contrast, are a mess. One win in their last five. Ten goals conceded across that run. A 4-0 hammering at Bayern, a 3-1 loss at Heidenheim, and a home defeat to Wolfsburg. They sit 11th with a goal difference of -18 and have won just four of their 15 away games this season. This is a side drifting through the final weeks of the campaign with nothing to play for and nothing going right.

Goals, Goals, Goals

The firepower Leipzig have assembled this season is serious. Y. Diomande and C. Baumgartner both sit on 12 goals in 29 league appearances each, with Rômulo chipping in 8 more. That's three players in double figures or close to it. When they hit their stride at the Red Bull Arena, teams get torn apart. The 5-0 against Hoffenheim a few weeks ago was a reminder of what they're capable of when it clicks at home.

Union, meanwhile, haven't got a 10-goal striker to worry about. Khedira, Ansah and Burke share the top scoring duties on 5 each, which tells you a lot about where this team is. They're defensively soft right now too. Diogo Leite, Juranović and Schäfer are all missing, which rips into their backline at the worst possible time. Coming to Leipzig short-handed at the back is not a situation you want to be in.

Head-to-Head and the Bigger Picture

The recent H2H has been tight. Union won this fixture 3-1 back in December 2025 when Leipzig travelled to Berlin, and before that the two meetings in 2024/25 both ended goalless. But go back to February 2024 and Leipzig put two past them at home, and the September 2023 result saw Union get thumped 3-0 at their own ground. The December reverse was Union at home, and this is Leipzig's patch on Friday.

Leipzig are third in the Bundesliga on 59 points and will have one eye on keeping that Champions League place secure. Union are in no danger of relegation or European qualification, which strips this of any edge for the visitors. Motivation is clearly one-sided.

Marie-Louise Eta will want to put in a respectable performance, but the personnel gaps, the dreadful away record (W4 D2 L9 on the road), and the form gulf make this an extremely difficult ask.

The Betting Angle

Leipzig at 1.4 is short, but the case for backing them is hard to argue with. Four straight wins, the best home record in the top half of the table, key Union defenders missing, and a Union side that hasn't won away from home with any consistency all season. The value play, though, is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.5. Leipzig have the firepower to score multiple, Union have been leaking at both ends, and the three-goal hammering in December showed these two can produce goals when the dynamic is right. Backing goals and backing Leipzig makes complete sense here.

If you want the bigger return, the Over 2.5 at 1.5 is the sharper angle. Leipzig are likely to win, but this line gives you cover even if Union nick one on the counter.