Real Madrid vs Alaves Betting Preview, Tips & Odds | 21 April 2026

A Club in Freefall Hosting a Side Fighting for Survival

Real Madrid's season has cratered at the worst possible moment. Álvaro Arbeloa's side have lost four of their last five across all competitions, conceding 11 goals in the process, and the Champions League exit to Bayern München told you everything you needed to know about where this team is right now. Two legs, two defeats, eliminated. That's the context walking into Tuesday night at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.

The league is still there, at least. Madrid sit second on 70 points and will be motivated to put something on the board in front of their own fans. Home form has been solid all season, W13 D1 L2, so the Bernabéu hasn't been the problem. The away form and the big-game mentality have. Alaves at home is exactly the kind of fixture Arbeloa needs to stop the bleeding.

Alaves: Dangerous? Not Really. But Not Dead Either

Quique Flores has his side in 17th, sitting on 33 points with a goal difference of -11. They're close enough to the drop zone to be uncomfortable, which means this trip to Madrid carries real urgency. The last five La Liga games have been strange viewing: a 3-3 draw at Real Sociedad, a 4-3 win at Celta Vigo, a 2-2 at home to Osasuna. Alaves score goals. They also concede them at roughly the same rate: 12 for, 12 against across those five games.

L. Boyé leads their line with 11 goals this season, and Toni Martínez has chipped in with 8. There's no shortage of attacking intent from Flores' side, but they've shipped 10 goals in their last three road trips in the league and simply have not functioned away from home, W3 D3 L10 on the road all season. Going to the Bernabéu is a different proposition entirely.

Team News and Key Absences

Madrid have a meaningful injury list to navigate. Antonio Rudiger is missing, which strips out experience and leadership at the back. Ferland Mendy is also absent, thinning the left-sided options. The big one, though, is Jude Bellingham, who misses out and takes with him both the creative and physical engine room of this side. Losing all three at the same time is a real problem, and it goes some way to explaining the recent results. Alaves head into this with no confirmed injury concerns, which is a rare luxury for a side of their resources this late in the campaign.

Head-to-Head: There's Only One Story Here

Real Madrid have won each of the last five meetings with Alaves. That includes a 5-0 at the Bernabéu in May 2024, a 3-2 home win in September 2024, and two away wins at Alaves in the current season, 2-1 in December 2025 and 1-0 in April 2025. Madrid simply do not lose to this opponent. The pattern is consistent regardless of form cycles or squad rotation.

The Betting Angle

The temptation is to go against Madrid given the form, and I understand it. But the matchup doesn't support it. Alaves are the worst away side in the relevant bracket of this division, and the H2H record is as one-sided as you'll find in La Liga. Madrid's home record this season remains excellent, and even with Bellingham, Rudiger, and Mendy missing, they're running out against a side with a -11 goal difference sitting in 17th.

The goals angle is worth a look too. Both sides have been involved in high-scoring games recently: Alaves in particular have played in matches averaging well over three goals across their last five. At 1.44, Over 2.5 Goals has serious appeal given the attacking chaos from both ends. But the primary value is still the home win. 1.27 is short, yes, but this is Real Madrid at home against a struggling Alaves side with nothing to show away from home all season.

Mbappé has 23 goals in 26 appearances this season. Vinícius is contributing 11 goals and 5 assists across 30 games. Even with the squad disruption, the firepower to punish a leaky Alaves defence is absolutely there. I'm backing the home win, and I'd strongly consider stacking it with Over 2.5 Goals if you want a touch more return.