As Roma 
Pisa League Position Tells the Story
This one is about as lopsided as Serie A gets. Roma sit sixth on 54 points with a goal difference of +14. Pisa are rock bottom on 18 points, GD of -32, and have not won a single away match all season. Zero away wins from 15 attempts. That is a relegation side in freefall, and Roma at the Stadio Olimpico are no soft touch at home, with ten wins from 15 home games this season.
Gian Piero Gasperini's side have been inconsistent in patches, but the gap in quality here is enormous. Pisa have shipped 12 goals in their last five matches while scoring just three. Roma's recent form is scrappy too, 8 goals scored and 12 conceded across their last five, but that sequence includes a 2-5 loss away at Inter and a bumpy Europa League double-header against Bologna. Context matters.
Injury News and Selection Concerns
Roma are carrying some real problems going into this. Lorenzo Pellegrini is missing, Paulo Dybala is out, and Angelino is also absent. Pellegrini has four goals and two assists in 23 appearances this season, and Dybala's absence removes creativity and unpredictability from their attack. These are not bit-part players. Roma's top scorer Donyell Malen has seven goals in 11 appearances this season, and Matias Soulé has six goals and four assists in 26 games, so there is still firepower available, but losing Dybala and Pellegrini in the same match hurts.
On the Pisa side, Henrik Meister is out, along with F. Coppola and I. Vural. Meister had two goals in 23 appearances this season, so his loss is felt. Their top scorer Stefano Moreo has six goals in 30 appearances but has had precious little to work with behind him.
A news headline this week confirmed Roma also lose Mancini for two to three weeks following a fresh injury, which adds further defensive disruption. Not ideal timing.
The Betting Angle
Despite the injury concerns, Roma at 1.4 to win this at home is still the play. Pisa have not won away from home once in 15 attempts. They have conceded five at Como, four at Juventus, and lost at home to Torino in their last five outings. Oscar Hiljemark's side are running on empty and facing a team that, even without Dybala and Pellegrini, has the quality to dominate a side this far adrift.
The head-to-head backs Roma too. The one meeting this season, back in August, ended Pisa 0-1 Roma. Pisa hosted that one. Roma now have home advantage.
The Over 2.5 goals market at 1.96 is tempting given Roma's recent defensive wobbles and Pisa's tendency to concede, but given Roma's absences, the safer read is a controlled Roma win rather than a high-scoring affair. The home win at 1.4 is short, but justified. If you want value elsewhere, Pisa's 11.0 is not worth chasing, that away record is the worst argument in Serie A right now.
Odds: 1.4 — Pinnacle
Pisa have zero away wins from 15 attempts this season and have conceded 12 goals in their last five matches. Roma are missing key men in Dybala and Pellegrini, but the gulf in class between sixth and twentieth in Serie A is simply too wide for Pisa to bridge at the Stadio Olimpico. Back the home win.