Salisbury, Saturday 11 July: Tips and Best Bets

Salisbury, Saturday 11 July: Tips and Best Bets

Salisbury stages a six-race card on good to firm ground under partly cloudy skies, and the going suits horses with a bit of class about them on this sharp, undulating track. William Haggas dominates the trainer stats here with a 24% strike rate, and his runner in the opening novice is one to keep close tabs on. Three of the six races are novice or maiden conditions events, so read-across form matters enormously.

5:36 — Simon & Nerys Dutfield Memorial British EBF Novice Stakes (7f)

A small field of six two-year-olds, but this is where the card gets interesting early. Undiscovered (6/4, Boyle Sports) comes in with a winning debut and Ralph Beckett in reasonable nick at 5/36 over the past fortnight. Hector Crouch takes the ride, and his 19% course record at Salisbury is solid enough. The concern is that a single run tells you almost nothing at this stage.

The one I want to be on here is Down To You Kid at 9/4 with Boyle Sports. Richard Hannon’s operation sends this son of presumably decent breeding with a form line reading 32 on his two starts, showing consistent improvement. A runner-up and a third means he has learned his job. The step up in distance suits horses who ran on in those earlier efforts, and Hannon’s yard is active at the moment. With six runners and only two places paid, this is not an each-way race worth pursuing, but Down To You Kid at 9/4 to win looks the best value in the race against a horse whose book is still unread.

Selection: Down To You Kid, 9/4 (Boyle Sports)

6:08 — Tony Brown Novice Stakes (7f)

Odogwu goes off favourite at 11/10 for Roger Varian, who hits 20% at this course over a large sample. A debut fifth is the only line to go on, and Varian regularly improves horses from their initial outing. Vanilla Skies carries the William Haggas colour and has a winning debut to her name at 13/8, which keeps her honest.

The value play is March Of Time at 9/2 with Boyle Sports, trained by Clive Cox who has been firing at 4/23 over the past fortnight. A debut third on her only run gives her a form line that reads better than most novices at this stage. Cox knows how to place these fillies, and the step up from whatever surface she debuted on to Salisbury’s good to firm should not inconvenience her. Hector Crouch, who knows this track well, takes the ride and that combination of course-form jockey and a trainer operating at a decent clip makes this one worth attacking at double-figure territory.

Selection: March Of Time, 9/2 (Boyle Sports)

6:40 — Richard ‘Dick’ Robathan Memorial Fillies’ Handicap (1m2f)

Six fillies over a mile and two furlongs on good to firm, and this is the race of the day for punters who like a bit of form to get their teeth into.

Oh Yes You Do (7/4, Boyle Sports) is the clear market leader and the form is straightforward enough. Two wins from her last five starts, placed again three runs back, trip proven, ground proven, and coming here off a 23-day gap fresh and fit. David Menuisier has only one winner from his last 14 runners, but this filly is doing the talking with her form, not the trainer’s current stats. The alternating pattern of her results (win, then fourth, win, then fourth) is a mild concern, and if that cycle holds she is due a below-par run today. Worth noting.

The angle I prefer is Mayaada Each-Way at 4/1 with Boyle Sports. Ollie Sangster’s three-year-old was runner-up last time out, has been placed in three of her last six starts including a win four runs back, and comes in fresh after just 14 days. The trip and ground are both proven. The sectional blot is one unplaced effort among those six starts, which any handicapper can live with. At 4/1 she represents better value than the favourite and has a form profile that screams placed runner at minimum. Stevie Donohoe takes the ride on a filly clearly in good order.

William Haggas’s Silver Lake at 11/4 is interesting purely because the trainer lands 24% of his Salisbury runners and he has been in sizzling form at 29% strike rate over the last fortnight. A 64-day break and three winless runs make the form unreliable, but Haggas knows how to bring them back right. Keep her on your radar if money appears for her in the market.

Selection: Mayaada, 4/1 each-way (Boyle Sports)

Today’s NAP

Mayaada — Richard ‘Dick’ Robathan Memorial Fillies’ Handicap (6:40, Salisbury)
Odds: 4/1 — Boyle Sports (others: 4/1 Betfred, 9/2 LiveScore Bet)

Runner-up last time out, placed in three of her last six, and proven on today’s trip and ground. At 4/1 she offers significantly better value than the odds-on shot Oh Yes You Do, and Ollie Sangster has her in good nick at 2/19 over the fortnight. This is a small enough field to win, with solid each-way insurance behind her at 1/4 the odds for two places.

Each-Way Recommended — 2 places at 1/4 odds