Southwell (AW) Tips: Thursday 21 May 2026

Southwell (AW) Tips: Thursday 21 May 2026

A mid-week card at Southwell on standard Fibresand, featuring three maiden and novice races that carry the GBB Race tag. Nothing to scare the horses in terms of prize money, but there is genuine punting interest across the card. The Gosden yard continues to fire at better than 23% over the past fortnight, and Roger Varian has been busy and productive too. Follow the market movers in the juvenile novice, where first-time-out runners dominate. Let’s get into it.

6:30 — Free Bets On attheraces.com Maiden Stakes (1m, AW)

Selection: Kahin — 4/1 (Betfred, LiveScore Bet; 9/2 Boyle Sports)

William Haggas had a quiet enough run last season but that 12-from-47 stat over the last 14 days tells you the yard is very much in form right now. Kahin cost 240,000gns as a foal and was sent off at 13/2 on his Windsor debut over a mile on good to firm, finishing seventh of eleven, a length behind Mostaan. That form reads better when you note Windsor on quick ground is a very different test to Southwell’s Fibresand, and there was enough encouragement there to suggest he is capable of better. The hood is off here, the surface should suit a horse bred for a bit of give, and Haggas rarely brings them back without expecting improvement.

The danger is Varian’s Affettuoso, who finished runner-up at Wolverhampton beaten less than a length by a subsequent winner and drops back to 1m from 9.5f. The stable is running four in this race, which complicates the form picture slightly. Affettuoso is the shortlisted fancy at 7/4, but the market may be compressed by the sheer number of Varian entries. At 4/1, Kahin offers the better each-way case in a field of 13.

Lone Warrior Each-Way (8/1, Boyle Sports) is also worth including in any each-way multiple. The George Scott-trained gelding showed real ability over a mile on turf for Balding last summer, the form of both those runs working out well afterwards. He was gelded, hopped 85,000gns, and has had eleven months off. The hood is removed. Classic bounce-back profile at a tasty price.

7:00 — Follow @attheraces On X Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (1m, AW)

Selection: Royal Fanfare — 4/5 (Boyle Sports, Betfred)

Not often you will see a near odds-on shot recommended in this column, but Royal Fanfare has earned her place at the top of the market. The Gosden operation is running at 7-from-30 over two weeks, and this filly’s Kempton debut was highly encouraging. Sent off as the 5/4 favourite over the same 1m Polytrack trip three weeks ago, she finished second of twelve, beaten less than a length from a wide draw. She finished streets clear of third. Lightning Glory, who runs again here, was fourth that day.

She meets Lightning Glory again and takes on ten newcomers. On the form the punters have already seen, she is a clear class above everything else in this field. The only question mark is whether a filly bred by Gosden has been pointed at Southwell as a formality before better targets. Given the yard’s current strike rate, take the short price.

Dream Camp at 11/2 is the each-way alternative for each-way players. Third of seven at Salisbury 18 days ago, showed promise over 7f in both starts, and the step up to 1m looks a natural progression for a 250,000-euro Andrew Balding purchase.

7:30 — attheraces.com/marketmovers Restricted Novice Stakes (7f, AW)

Selection: Guadalevin Each-Way — 7/2 (Boyle Sports, Betfred)

Six runners, all making their debuts, which means this race is entirely about pedigree, market moves, and trainer intent. Charlie Fellowes has his 2yos going well, the spotlight data specifically notes they have performed well on AW surfaces, and Guadalevin is a 60,000gns half-sister to five winners, several of whom were effective over this sort of trip on Polytrack and Tapeta. The dam won over 1m2f at RPR 97. If this filly has inherited any of that ability and Fellowes has her ready, she can make a bold show.

Crown Ranger at 11/4 is the other angle worth noting. Marco Botti had a juvenile win at Lingfield on Monday over this exact trip, which is a live signal the yard has its 2yos tuned up. Market confidence behind this Camelot colt would be significant. Watch the market at 7:15.

Choreography at 11/4 for Michael Bell rounds out the shortlist, but the Bell yard has managed only 1-from-21 in the last fortnight and this is a competitive spot for an unknown quantity.

Today’s NAP