Stockport County 
Peterborough United Form and Context
Stockport arrive at Edgeley Park on the back of a difficult run. They've taken just four points from their last four league matches, with that deflating 0-1 home defeat to Mansfield the most recent blot. The EFL Trophy Final loss to Luton on April 12 still hangs in the air too. A 3-1 defeat at Wembley, a trophy slipping through their fingers. That kind of result doesn't just hurt on the night. The mental weight of it can linger, and Stockport's recent numbers suggest it already has.
The 3-3 draw at Exeter and the 2-2 at Bolton tell you the defensive shape isn't what it was. Eight goals scored in those last four away and home league outings, nine conceded. They're fifth in League One on 71 points with promotion still a realistic target, so the motivation is there. But form since the turn of March has been patchy at best.
Peterborough have been in freefall. One point from their last three league games, and those defeats don't flatter them either: 1-3 at home to Port Vale, 1-3 away at Blackpool, and 1-2 at Luton before that. Ten goals conceded in the last five matches. They're 17th, comfortably mid-table, with nothing meaningful to play for. That's a dangerous kind of team to play against in some ways, no pressure, nothing to lose. But it also means application can wander.
Injuries and Head-to-Head
Stockport will be without both L. Bate and C. Camps, both missing this fixture with unknown issues. Depending on their roles in the squad, that's a genuine selection headache the home side will need to manage, particularly with a promotion push still alive. Peterborough have no confirmed injury concerns and should be close to full strength.
The head-to-head this season tells an interesting story. Peterborough won 3-0 at home back in November, which was comprehensive. Before that, Stockport took a 2-1 win at Edgeley Park in December 2024. The most recent meeting ended 1-1 at Peterborough in April this year. Three meetings, three different outcomes. No clear pattern of dominance, but Stockport's home record in those meetings is what matters here. They won that December fixture and will fancy their chances in front of their own fans despite the recent form wobble.
Worth pointing out: Peterborough's away record this season is dreadful. Seven wins, but 13 defeats away from home. That's a team that functions differently on the road, and not in a good way.
The Betting Angle
This is a tricky one to fully trust. Stockport's form is shaky, the Trophy Final defeat is fresh, and two players are out. But they're at home, they need the points for a promotion push, and they're up against a Peterborough side that has shipped 10 goals in five matches and has almost nothing to play for away from home.
Peterborough do have attacking quality. Hector Leonard on 14 goals this season, Jonson Morgan on 12, Kevin Lisbie with 11. They can score, clearly. But conceding at the rate they have recently makes it hard to back them as a road team against a side that still has promotion ambitions.
The 1.51 on Stockport reflects how heavily the market leans their way. That price feels about right given home advantage and Peterborough's away form, but it's a short price on a team in shaky league form. Over 2.5 Goals at 1.40 is the sharper angle here. Both sides have been leaky, Stockport scored eight in four and Peterborough have goals in their ranks despite the dreadful defensive numbers. This has the feel of a game where the net gets busy.
Stockport probably win, but at 1.51, if they draw or have another off-day, you're staring at a bad loss. The goals market is where the value sits.
Odds: 1.4 โ Coolbet
Both sides have been conceding freely. Stockport hit eight goals across their last four competitive matches and Peterborough's attack has genuine quality with Leonard, Morgan, and Lisbie all in double figures for the season. With Peterborough having nothing to play for defensively, a high-scoring game looks the most likely outcome regardless of who takes the three points.