Stratford, Tuesday 16 June: Tips and Best Bets

Stratford, Tuesday 16 June: Tips and Best Bets

A tight six-race card at Stratford on good ground, with partly cloudy conditions keeping things consistent throughout the afternoon. Three races stand out for punters worth their salt, and the course stats throw up a couple of angles worth pressing. Ben Pauling’s 24% strike rate at Stratford is the headline trainer number, while Dan Skelton’s operation continues to fire in the short-term with 12 winners from 35 runners over the last fortnight. Harry Skelton knows every blade of grass around this track. Let’s get into it.

2:05 — Racing To School Novices’ Hurdle (2m2½f)

Selection: Louis Veron at 4/9 (Boyle Sports, Betfred, LiveScore Bet)

You’re not going to get rich backing 4/9 shots, but sometimes a race just needs calling straight. Louis Veron is the Dan Skelton/Harry Skelton production line at its most straightforward. Form reads 2-21, which means he has already broken his duck and is heading in the right direction. With Dan Skelton running at a ferocious 9 wins from 22 runners over the past fortnight, the yard is as hot as it gets right now. Harry Skelton’s 24% course record at Stratford from 289 rides with an A/E of 0.94 tells you the pair rarely turn up here without purpose.

The most credible danger is Maskarvel at 10/3 for Alastair Ralph, whose form of 252-23 shows consistency if not brilliance. The problem is Ralph’s yard has gone 0 from 9 in the last 14 days, which is a red flag you cannot ignore. With 10 runners and three places on offer, Louis Veron should win this, but at the short price, win only is the only sensible play.

The longer-priced interest comes from Penzance Each-Way at 8/1 (Betfred best price). Mark Loughnane has a genuinely impressive 21% Stratford strike rate with an A/E of 2.33, the highest of any trainer in the course stats. A one-run form line of 3- means we know next to nothing, but with a trainer this sharp at the track and a juicy 8/1 available, a small each-way flyer at 1/5 odds for three places is not without merit.

3:15 — Karen Poulter Handicap Chase (2m1f, GBB Race)

Selection: Lheur De Gloire at 7/4 (Boyle Sports, Betfred)

Seven runners, good ground, and a race that takes some unpicking. The market has made its mind up about Lheur De Gloire at 7/4 and it is hard to argue. Form of 566-41 shows a horse that found its rhythm when things clicked, and Ben Pauling’s 24% course record at Stratford with an A/E of 1.24 is the standout trainer stat across the whole card. Ben Jones, in the saddle, has hit 18% at the track from 66 rides. The yard is not in blistering recent form at 1 from 16 over the last fortnight, which is the one note of caution, but course specialists at a track this quirky deserve respect regardless of short-term numbers.

The biggest threat looks like Whatyouwaitingfor at 10/3 for Charlie Longsdon, ridden by Gavin Sheehan who boasts a 17% course record here. Form of 1223-3 is solid and consistent, and at the price there is a case. However, Longsdon’s yard has only fired once from seven in the past 14 days, so the backing is lukewarm.

Not So Sobers Each-Way at 6/1 (Boyle Sports, Betfred) with David Bass up is worth a second look each-way. Form of 7/50-1 shows a recent winner and the McPherson yard has gone 3 from 10 lately, which is a decent clip. At 6/1 with two places paid at 1/4 odds in a seven-runner field, the each-way return makes sense if you want a saver.

3:50 — Clear Insurance Management Handicap Hurdle (2m½f)

Selection: Edelak at 8/13 (Boyle Sports, Betfred, LiveScore Bet)

Three runners and a match between the market leaders, effectively. Edelak is the 8/13 favourite with Harry Skelton booked for Dan Skelton, and the combination of trainer form (12/35 last 14 days is exceptional) and Skelton’s 24% Stratford record makes this the most straightforward call of the day. Form of 6-21 mirrors Louis Veron’s trajectory in the earlier race: improving, won last time, stepping forward again. Good ground will suit.

Machete Beach at 11/8 (Boyle Sports, Betfred) represents the only realistic alternative. Jamie Snowden has gone 3 from 11 recently and his 19% course record is respectable. Gavin Sheehan knows the track. The 11/8 is not without appeal if you want to take on the jolly, but the Skelton machine in this kind of form is a hard train to stop.

With only three runners, each-way is irrelevant here. Win singles only.

Today’s NAP

Louis Veron — Racing To School Novices’ Hurdle (2:05, Stratford)
Odds: 4/9 — Boyle Sports (others: 4/9 Betfred, 4/9 LiveScore Bet)

Yes, 4/9 is short, but this is a race where the form, the trainer, the jockey, and the track stats all point the same direction. Dan Skelton has gone 9 from 22 runners in the past fortnight, Harry Skelton converts at 24% around Stratford, and Louis Veron arrives on the back of a win with an upward form curve. The main market rival comes from a cold yard. Back the best horse in the race and keep the staking sensible.