Stratford, Tuesday 30 June: Racing Tips and Best Bets

Stratford, Tuesday 30 June: Racing Tips and Best Bets

A six-race card at Stratford on good to firm ground rounds off June, with three races featured here that offer genuine betting angles. The summer jumping scene can look thin on paper, but today’s card has some real talking points, not least a couple of Dan Skelton runners who deserve close attention. Harry Skelton’s 24% course strike rate is the best number on the board for any jockey in the weighing room today. And with England cricket beginning a major home series against India tomorrow, at least the punters have something to occupy them if results go against them this evening.

6:18 — ROA/RSA Shared Ownership Day Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (2m1f)

Selection: Tellherthename at 1/3 (Boyle Sports, Betfred, LiveScore Bet)

Three runners, one story. Tellherthename has won back-to-back, including a six-length success at Uttoxeter from a mark lower than today’s, and the comment that he remains well treated against his hurdle form is significant. He bowls along at the front, the 2m1f suits, and Dan Skelton is operating at a remarkable 50% over the last 14 days. At 22% wins at Stratford with an improving recent yard stat, Skelton clearly has his string in order. Kielan Woods rides, 16% here with a positive A/E of 1.2.

Captain Cool at 5/2 is not without appeal given the first-time cheekpieces and tongue-tie combination, but he ran off just 1lb below today’s mark last time and was beaten. With only three runners and an odds-on jolly, this is a small-stakes race for most. The bet is Tellherthename to win; no each-way case in a three-runner field.

6:48 — Racehorse Ownership From 25 Pound At racingclub.com Maiden Hurdle (2m2½f)

Selection: Bound For Glory at 7/4 (Boyle Sports, Betfred)

Square d’Alboni is the market leader and the Skelton/Harry Skelton combination demands respect, but the last run at Catterick involved bleeding, and the flat form, while useful, needs translating to hurdles at 10/11. The value angle is the four-year-old Bound For Glory, trained by Robert Stephens, who won his maiden bumper at this very course by a barely believable 76 lengths on faster ground last time. That was not a fluke of a result, it was a performance that showed real raw potential. Ciaran Gethings takes the ride for a yard that has sent out a winner from three runners in the last fortnight.

The step up into hurdling is the unknown, and he is meeting more experienced animals, but bumper form that emphatic at Stratford on the same going deserves serious respect. At 7/4, with Square d’Alboni at 10/11, Bound For Glory looks the betting vehicle of the race.

Mr Rafiki is quietly consistent at 6/1 and the tongue-tie could sharpen him, worth keeping onside for a place. Penzance showed something over a longer trip here last time, but the trainer has gone 0/5 in the last 14 days and that is a flag against.

7:18 — SolidCAM UK Partner Handicap Hurdle (2m6f)

Selection: Lion Of The Desert Each-Way at 10/3 (Boyle Sports, Betfred)

Tyson is the obvious choice at 15/8 and the Dan Skelton angle is real, a 10-length Huntingdon win from a lower mark, Harry Skelton in the saddle, and the trainer firing. But the market has already priced that in and the each-way play on Lion Of The Desert at 10/3 looks the smarter move.

This Grace Harris gelding has won at Ffos Las and been narrowly beaten in his two most recent starts over course and distance. He acts on the going, he clearly likes Stratford, and a first-time hood could sharpen his focus. Yes, he goes up 3lb on his last placed effort, but his recent trajectory is upward and he remains competitive at this level. The key stat here: Grace Harris has a 1.29 A/E at Stratford, the highest of any trainer in today’s field, meaning her runners at this track perform above their odds. Joe Anderson is aboard, 26% course strike rate with an A/E of 1.80. That is the best jockey number on the card today, and it is sitting on the 10/3 each-way shot.

Tyson is the main threat. If you want the safe play, that is fine. But at nearly double the price with course-and-distance form and two of the strongest course angles on the card, Lion Of The Desert is the each-way bet.

Jackstell is interesting with cheekpieces on at 6/1, three wins from his last five starts before a setback, and Jamie Snowden has an 18% strike rate at Stratford. Worth noting at bigger each-way terms if you like multiple plays.

Today’s NAP

Lion Of The Desert — SolidCAM UK Partner Handicap Hurdle (19:18, Stratford)
Odds: 10/3 — Boyle Sports (others: 10/3 Betfred, 10/3 LiveScore Bet)

Course and distance form, an upward trajectory over recent starts, and two of the most compelling course stats on the card in Grace Harris (A/E 1.29 at Stratford) and jockey Joe Anderson (26% course strike rate, A/E 1.80). The first-time hood could be the final piece. At 10/3 against a 15/8 jolly who has already had his form priced in, this is where the value lives on tonight’s card.

Each-Way Recommended 3 places at 1/5 odds