THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Betting Tips | May 2026

PGA Tour

TPC Craig Ranch returns to the calendar this week as the PGA Tour pitches up in Texas for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. The course has a reputation as a birdie-fest, and with soft conditions expected after recent rain, scoring should be low once again. Scottie Scheffler proved that emphatically twelve months ago, and the world number one arrives as the man to beat once more.

This is a key stretch of the season for players chasing form ahead of the summer majors, and the field reflects that urgency. Several big names are teeing it up in Texas looking to build momentum, while others will be eyeing a statement win to kickstart their campaigns. With the course rewarding aggressive ball-striking and sharp wedge play, expect fireworks from Thursday onwards.

Outright Favourites

Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion and the odds reflect his dominance here. Betway have him at 1.75/1, with betonline and bovada both at 1.85/1. Those are cramped prices, but they’re not without merit. Our analysis puts Scheffler at a 31.4% chance to win, which translates to around 2/1 implied odds. That means there’s slim value even at the best available price, but you’re backing the most complete player in the world on a course that suits his game perfectly.

Scheffler leads the field in ball-striking metrics, and TPC Craig Ranch is a layout that rewards precision iron play and putting confidence. His strokes-gained approach numbers have been exceptional this season, and with a 94% probability to make the cut and 74% chance of a top-ten finish, he’s the safest play in the outright market. The concern is simply the price. For those willing to back the favourite, he’s the logical choice, but the value hunters will need to look further down the board.

Si Woo Kim represents a far more interesting proposition at 12/1 with Betway. BonusDevil’s ratings give him a 6.1% win probability, which implies odds closer to 15/1. That makes 12/1 a shade short of true value, but Kim’s game is tailor-made for this venue. He’s a fearless ball-striker who thrives on courses where aggression pays, and his recent strokes-gained tee-to-green numbers suggest he’s in good touch. With a 38% chance of a top-ten finish and 85% to make the cut, he’s a legitimate threat if he finds his putter.

Jordan Spieth completes the top tier at 14/1 with bet365. That price looks generous when you consider our model puts him at 24/1 implied. Spieth’s course history won’t be detailed here, but his current form and strokes-gained data suggest he’s primed for a big week. He sits at a 4.0% win probability with a 30% chance of a top-ten finish. The each-way angle is compelling given the 1/5 odds, five places terms, and Spieth’s ability to post consistent finishes when his putter behaves.

Each-Way Value

Pierceson Coody Each-Way at 45/1 with bet365 is one of the standout each-way plays this week. We have him at a 1.9% win probability, which implies odds closer to 51/1. That means the 45/1 on offer is slightly short of pure value, but with a 19% chance of a top-ten finish and 71% to make the cut, the each-way cushion makes this a bet worth taking. Coody’s strokes-gained approach numbers have been solid, and he’s the type of player who can rack up birdies in bunches on a scoreable track like this.

Michael Thorbjornsen Each-Way is another name worth backing at 33/1 with bet365. BonusDevil’s ratings put him at 53/1 implied, so there’s clear value in the market price. His 1.8% win probability might not sound enormous, but with an 18% chance of a top-ten and 70% to make the weekend, the each-way returns could be very kind. Thorbjornsen’s ball-striking has been sharp in recent weeks, and if he can dial in his wedges, he’s more than capable of posting a low number.

Keith Mitchell Each-Way offers genuine each-way value at 35/1 with bet365. We rate him at 62/1 implied, which makes this one of the bigger value discrepancies in the field. Mitchell has a 1.6% win probability and an 18% chance of finishing in the top ten. His strokes-gained approach metrics suggest he’s hitting the ball well, and TPC Craig Ranch should suit his aggressive style. At 35/1 each-way, he’s worth a small stake for those looking to back a player capable of sneaking into the places.

Players to Watch

• Brooks Koepka (20/1 bet365) , The former major champion arrives in Texas with solid strokes-gained numbers and a 2.1% win probability. Our model implies 47/1, so the 20/1 on offer is short of value, but Koepka remains a dangerous player when motivated.
• Ryo Hisatsune (33/1 bet365) , The Japanese star sits at 2.0% win probability with a 20% chance of a top-ten finish. Our ratings put him at 50/1 implied, so 33/1 is a touch short, but he’s one to keep an eye on if the conditions suit.
• Wyndham Clark (45/1 bet365) , Clark has been consistent without spectacular recently, and his 1.6% win probability translates to 62/1 implied. The 45/1 available is slightly short of genuine value, but he’s more than capable of contending if his game clicks.

Our Pick