the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Betting Tips | June 2026

PGA Tour

Jack Nicklaus built Muirfield Village to test every facet of the game, and this week’s Memorial Tournament will do exactly that. The Ohio layout demands precision iron play, tidy scrambling around tricky greens, and the mental fortitude to navigate one of the PGA Tour’s most exacting challenges. With a signature event purse and elevated status on the calendar, the field is stacked with quality, making for a compelling betting puzzle.

The market has scattered its chips widely this year, with no prohibitive favourite emerging. That opens the door for shrewd punters to exploit mispriced talent, particularly among the each-way ranks where bookmakers have inflated odds on players our analysis rates far more highly. Let’s identify the value.

Outright Favourites

Ludvig Aberg heads the market at 25/1 with bet365, a price that looks generous when you consider BonusDevil’s ratings give him a 9% chance of victory. That’s closer to 10/1 implied, making the Swedish star genuine value in a field of this calibre. Aberg’s ball-striking gives him the arsenal to conquer Muirfield Village’s tree-lined corridors, and with an 83% probability of making the cut and a 38% chance of landing a top-ten finish, he offers security alongside upside. The 25/1 available represents a significant edge over fair value.

Russell Henley sits at 9/1 with Betway, the shortest price in the field. Our analysis puts him at 20/1 implied (4.7% win probability), suggesting the market has overcompensated for recent form or name recognition. While Henley brings solid metrics across the board, the 9/1 quote offers minimal margin for error. He’s a contender, certainly, with a 28% top-ten probability, but not at these cramped odds.

Justin Thomas commands 40/1 at bet365, drifting to 50/1 elsewhere. We have him at 30/1 implied (3.3%), so the longer prices represent fair value rather than standout opportunity. Thomas thrives on courses demanding course management and precision, both hallmarks of Muirfield Village. His 22% top-ten probability and 74% cut-making likelihood keep him relevant, but the standout value lies elsewhere in the field.

Each-Way Value

The each-way market is where this tournament gets interesting. Each-Way terms of 1/5 odds over five places make backing longer-priced contenders with solid fundamentals a smart play.

Ben Griffin at 110/1 with bet365 is a glaring market inefficiency. BonusDevil’s analysis rates him at 31/1 implied (3.2% win probability), making this a colossal pricing error. Griffin brings a 23% top-ten probability and a robust 78% chance of making the weekend, metrics that suggest he belongs much closer to the front of the market. His strokes-gained profile will suit Muirfield Village’s demands, and at triple-figure odds, the each-way returns offer substantial value even if he finishes in the minor places.

Robert MacIntyre at 750/1 with bet365 borders on the absurd when our ratings put him at 33/1 implied (2.9%). The Scottish left-hander has the game to compete on demanding layouts, with a 21% top-ten probability and 75% cut-making likelihood backing up his credentials. At 750/1, you’re getting a player who should be trading around 30/1, a monumental overlay that demands each-way attention. Even a modest top-five finish returns serious profit at these inflated odds.

J.J. Spaun presents another angle at 5.5/1 with bet365. We rate him at 35/1 implied (2.8%), so the 5.5/1 available represents exceptional value for a player with genuine winning credentials. Spaun’s 21% top-ten probability and 75% cut likelihood suggest consistency, and at these odds, even a runner-up finish yields handsome returns under each-way terms.

Players to Watch

Hideki Matsuyama at 12/1 with Sky Bet carries significant name recognition but looks overpriced against our 45/1 implied rating (2.2% win probability). Still, the Japanese star’s history on challenging American courses and 18% top-ten probability keeps him in the conversation. Better value exists, but dismissing him entirely would be foolish given his class.

Keegan Bradley at 2000/1 with bet365 is another bookmaker blunder. Our analysis rates him at 54/1 implied (1.8%), and while that’s still an outsider’s chance, you’re getting nearly 40 times fair value. His 16% top-ten probability and 69% cut-making odds suggest he can feature on the leaderboard, making the each-way play at four-figure odds a tempting lottery ticket with genuine substance behind it.

Alex Smalley at 12/1 with Sky Bet merits attention as a consistent performer with a 20% top-ten probability and 74% cut likelihood. We have him at 38/1 implied (2.6%), so the 12/1 available offers clear value for a player whose strokes-gained metrics suggest he can handle Muirfield Village’s challenges.

Our Pick