The Open Championship Betting Tips | July 2026

Major

Royal Birkdale returns to centre stage this week as the world’s best gather on the Lancashire coast for the 155th Open Championship. The classic links layout will test every facet of the game, with wind management paramount as always on this exposed stretch of England’s northwest. Scottie Scheffler arrives as defending champion, but a stacked field and unpredictable coastal conditions ensure nothing comes easy at Royal Birkdale.

Outright Favourites

Scottie Scheffler heads the market and our ratings in equal measure. We have him at 11.5% to successfully defend, which lines up perfectly with the 8/1 implied odds. The world number one possesses the complete game for links golf: elite ball-striking, the temperament to grind through difficult conditions, and proven major championship pedigree. His 48% Top 10 probability and 87% cut-making likelihood underline his class, though repeating as Open champion remains one of golf’s toughest assignments.

Rory McIlroy at 25/1 with bet365 represents outstanding value. Our analysis puts him at 7.3%, roughly 13/1 implied, so there’s clear daylight between his genuine chances and the bookmaker assessment. The Northern Irishman’s links credentials need no introduction, and while major heartbreak has followed him in recent years, the raw ability remains undiminished. A 36% Top 10 probability speaks to consistent performance levels, and at this price he’s simply too big to ignore.

Tommy Fleetwood will have enormous home support, and the Southport native knows these fairways better than most. At 90/1 with bet365 he’s monstrously overpriced. BonusDevil’s ratings give him a 4.4% chance, which translates to 22/1 implied odds. That’s a colossal discrepancy. His 30% Top 10 probability matches players priced at a quarter of his current odds, and while the pressure of home expectation can cut both ways, his ball-striking and course knowledge make him a standout each-way proposition.

Each-Way Value

Jon Rahm at 1000/1 with bet365 looks like a bookmaker error. Each-Way Our numbers have the Spaniard at 4.6%, which implies 21/1 fair value. That’s a 47-fold difference between our assessment and the best available price. The market seems to be punishing him for off-course distractions or recent form wobbles, but pure ability doesn’t vanish overnight. His 29% Top 10 probability and 78% cut-making likelihood confirm he belongs in the conversation, not buried at triple-digit odds. With 1/4 odds across five places, this is exceptional each-way value.

Matt Fitzpatrick is another player the market has drastically underestimated. Each-Way Available at 2.6/1 with bet365 (others: 2.84/1 Pinnacle, 2.8/1 pointsbet), he carries a 3.5% win probability in our ratings, roughly 28/1 implied. That’s a tenfold edge over the bookmaker price. The Sheffield man’s meticulous game management and consistent ball-striking suit links conditions perfectly. A 26% Top 10 probability and 77% cut likelihood provide strong each-way insurance, and at these inflated odds he’s a mandatory inclusion in any Open portfolio.

Tyrrell Hatton at 100/1 with bet365 (others: 170/1 draftkings, 157.67/1 Pinnacle) offers another pricing anomaly. Each-Way We rate him at 2.3%, which works out to 43/1 fair value. The fiery Englishman’s temperament might concern some, but his iron play and competitive fire thrive in challenging conditions. A 19% Top 10 probability makes the each-way angle particularly appealing, and with the market offering more than double his fair price, the value is unambiguous.

Players to Watch

Xander Schauffele arrives with two major championships in his back pocket and the sort of complete game that travels to any venue. Our ratings place him at 4.3% with a 28% Top 10 probability, marking him as a genuine contender rather than a sentimental pick. His composed demeanour under pressure and elite short game make him dangerous on a course where scrambling ability often separates champions from also-rans.

Ludvig Aberg continues his rapid ascent through world golf. The young Swede sits at 4.0% in our win probabilities with a 27% Top 10 chance, numbers that place him firmly among the elite tier. His powerful ball-striking and fearless approach have already yielded major championship contention, and links golf suits his game beautifully. Still learning the nuances of championship pressure, but the talent is undeniable.

Min Woo Lee represents a longer-priced option worth monitoring. Available at 7.5/1 with Sky Bet (others: 8/1 pointsbet, 7.99/1 betcris), the Australian brings prodigious length and an aggressive mindset. Our ratings have him at 1.9%, approximately 50/1 fair value, so there’s considerable overlay at the current market price. A 17% Top 10 probability provides each-way appeal for those looking beyond the obvious names.

Our Pick