Thirsk, Saturday 2 May: Tips and Best Bets

Thirsk, Saturday 2 May: Tips and Best Bets

Good to firm ground at Thirsk sets up a sharp afternoon of flat racing, with the big-field Hunt Cup headline act giving punters the most to chew over. Yarns about Thirsk being a track that rewards pace-setters and handy types are well-founded on a sound surface, so positional runners get an edge today. Three races stand out for a proper angle.

2:10 — British EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes

Selection: Town Queen (5/4 Bet365, 6/5 William Hill)

Only five runners but the form makes this straightforward in theory. Town Queen brings an RPR of 88 into a novice where the next best is rated 76, and that gap is substantial at this level. K R Burke's yard has been in excellent nick, firing at 9/35 over the last fortnight, and Sam James keeps the ride. The 7f trip on good to firm suits a filly stepping forward from a runner-up debut. At 5/4 this is not about value, it is about picking the winner of a small-field novice. Back her to win and move on.

The alternative view is that William Haggas saddles Perfect Ruler at 5/1 and his yard is ticking over nicely at 6/28 recently. But the form difference is too wide to bridge here. Town Queen is the banker.

2:40 — Sky Bet Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap

Selection: Sea Force Each-Way (7/2 William Hill, 4/1 Bet365)

Fifteen runners, four places paid at 1/5 odds, and a handicap that rewards horses dropping back having run in stiffer company. Sea Force is trained by William Haggas, whose yard is in the form of their lives right now at 6/28 in the past fortnight, and Oisin Orr takes the ride. The RPR of 114 and TS of 95 are comfortably among the best figures in the field on a race-by-race basis, and a mark of 129 is workable given the class he has shown.

The form line of 3461-6 needs context. That sixth last time out came on ground or in a race scenario that did not suit, and fresh off a winter break the handicapper has not moved against him significantly. Good to firm at Thirsk over a flat mile is exactly what a Haggas speedball wants on a May afternoon.

Blue Rc is the market leader and deserves respect, form reading 122-12 is tidy and James Tate's runner clearly goes on this ground. But at 4/1 you are getting the same price as Sea Force with arguably more upside on the Haggas horse given the yard's current run rate. Flight Plan for K R Burke at 13/2 is the main danger in a run-on role, Burke going at 9/35 recently is very hard to ignore, but the Hunt Cup draw and pace scenario tend to suit those racing handily.

Go each-way on Sea Force at 7/2 William Hill. Four places means the placed money is very much in play in a wide-open 15-runner field.

4:25 — Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap (5f)

Selection: Vantheman Each-Way (15/2 Bet365, 7/1 William Hill)

Five furlongs on good to firm is a test of raw speed and a touch of luck in running with 11 horses involved. The form line 75-187 for Vantheman shows a horse that has placed at this level in recent starts and the RPR of 101 and TS of 93 are competitive marks for the grade. Kevin Ryan trains and Shane Gray rides, and while Ryan's 14-day record of 5/29 is not explosive, it shows the yard is ticking over and sending horses out ready to run.

Wheels Of Fire at 8/1 is interesting from Richard Hannon's yard, form of 76-010 looks modest on the face of it but a 4yo gelding dropping into a £9k five-furlong handicap after running in stronger company could easily be ahead of his current mark. Worth considering each-way as a secondary play at 8/1.

Sports Coach at 11/1 has a TS of 91 which suggests he has been running to a decent level of late, and 3-2154 reads like a horse consistently knocking on the door. But Vantheman at 15/2 with three places paid gives the better each-way proposition at the top of the market, assuming he can get a clear run from the gates.

• Sea Force each-way, 7/2 William Hill (Hunt Cup)
• Town Queen win, 5/4 Bet365 (Fillies' Novice)
• Vantheman each-way, 15/2 Bet365 (5f Handicap)

Today's NAP