Thirsk, Saturday 16 May: Best Bets on Good Ground

Thirsk, Saturday 16 May: Best Bets on Good Ground

A full eight-race card at Thirsk on good ground, and there are three races worth getting stuck into. The going is ideal for horses with proven form on a sound surface, and that filters out a few market movers who prefer cut. Let’s get into it.

1:52 — Marion Gibson Brown Memorial Fillies’ Maiden (Div I, 5f)

Two-year-old maidens on the first weekend of May are always tricky, but this one has a clear angle. Lady Skipworth (11/2, Boyle Sports) gets the nod. The Dark Angel filly is closely related to three winners at five furlongs including 2yo winners, and her dam was a five-furlong juvenile scorer herself. This is a pedigree screaming precocity. Trainer Richard Newland and Jamie Insole have already posted two 2yo wins this season, which tells you the juveniles are ready to run.

Daniel Tudhope takes the ride, and he does not waste his time on horses with no chance. At 11/2 in a 12-runner maiden, she is the most compelling profile on the card.

Penny Arcade is respected at 9/2. Karl Burke sends out five winners from 46 runners over the last fortnight, and the form behind her debut fourth has been boosted by the winner landing the Lily Agnes at Chester. She goes well fresh and should improve significantly, but Lady Skipworth’s pedigree edge is the play here.

Pretty Little Baby at 9/2 is also interesting. Charlie Clover’s record with juveniles (7-42) is genuinely impressive for a trainer still building a profile, and Persian Force is a first-season sire worth following. Worth being on the premises each-way.

4:47 — Sky Bet Club Handicap (1m, Good, 14 runners)

New Image (5/1, Boyle Sports) is the standout selection. The David O’Meara six-year-old has course form, acts on good ground, and his record at a mile is exceptional, including a Shergar Cup win at Ascot. He was clearly not himself in his two runs last year, but the close third at Redcar last month suggests he has rediscovered his form. That run came on his return from a break and over a mile, so today’s conditions are tailor-made. A 5/1 price for a horse who was a genuine Group-level performer at his best, back on a surface and trip that suits, is exactly the kind of value this card demands.

O’Meara’s stats (3 wins from 47 runners over 14 days) look modest on paper, but this horse has always been his own animal and the Redcar return was the green light.

City Of Poets is fair enough at 3/1 given the interference excuse at this course last time, but 3/1 is a short price in a 14-runner handicap for a horse who was technically only beaten by Esherann after that incident. Impartiality at 10/1 (Boyle Sports) each-way also has claims. Three handicap wins in 2025, cheekpieces back on, and has form at Goodwood in heavy ground which proves he handles conditions of all kinds. Good each-way proposition at that price.

5:25 — Sky Bet Price Boosts Handicap (7f, Good, 14 runners)

Sujet (11/4, Boyle Sports) heads the market and deserves to. The Declan Carroll gelding was narrowly beaten at Chester over this trip on good ground last week, and a 3lb rise for that performance is lenient enough for a horse who was previously winning at a mile and a mile-and-one-furlong in Ireland for Dermot Weld. The form figures read 410-72, but the Chester run was the standout: always travelling, always in contention, just caught late. He is learning his trade with the new yard and the trend is upward.

Carroll’s 14-day record (2 from 13) is perfectly solid, and Zak Wheatley’s 3lb claim takes the weight burden down further. Thirsk’s seven furlongs suits a horse who has speed and is not fully exposed at the trip.

Mudamer (11/2, Boyle Sports) is the main danger. Two wins over this trip at Catterick last October, a close third here last month on good ground from an unchanged mark. Geoffrey Harker’s yard is small and quiet in the stats (0/3 last 14 days) but this horse is consistent and knows how to make the running. If Sujet has any market drift, Mudamer becomes a live each-way play.

Persuasion at 11/2 is honest and won at Musselburgh three weeks ago, but he is nine years old and 2lb higher. Hard to fancy at even-money he is the one to beat.

Today’s NAP