Thirsk, Tuesday 16 June: Tips & Best Bets

Thirsk, Tuesday 16 June: Tips & Best Bets

Light rain has kissed the Thirsk turf this morning but the going remains Good, which suits plenty of today’s principals. Three races deserve your attention across the card, with a genuine each-way angle in the 12-runner handicap and a couple of solid win bets at prices worth taking. Ed Walker’s yard carries strong course form here at 23% from 35 attempts, and George Downing is a name to follow at this track, winning 21% of his rides with an A/E of 2.66. When those two combine, you pay attention.

2:15 British EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes

Selection: Counter Intuitive (10/3, Boyle Sports / LiveScore Bet)

Five runners, so no each-way play here, but the win case for Counter Intuitive is compelling. George Downing’s course stats at Thirsk are exceptional and Ed Walker is running at 23% at this venue, making this combination one of the stronger trainer/jockey angles on the card. The filly showed enough in two starts to suggest she is learning fast, and stepping up to a mile and four furlongs on good ground looks like an astute placing call from Walker. Hapiness has placed already and comes in at 6/4 as the market leader, but the price differential is not big enough to overlook the course-specialist edge that Counter Intuitive carries into this. Hello Friend at 9/4 is the other credible runner, trained by a yard in decent form, but KR Burke’s Thirsk numbers don’t match Walker’s. Take the 10/3 about Counter Intuitive and back the trainer/jockey angle.

2:50 PD Hook Gallop Handicap (5f)

Selection: Simba’s Pride (7/4, LiveScore Bet)

Eight runners over five furlongs on good ground and Simba’s Pride has the form to make this straightforward. The Michael Dods-trained gelding shows a recent sequence of 571215, which tells you he finished second last time out and has been competitive throughout. Dods is running at a healthy clip across his string and Mark Winn gets the leg up here. The 7/4 available at LiveScore Bet represents a solid starting price for what looks a reliable favourite in a race where the opposition is mostly exposed. Golden Havana is the stablemate to watch at 9/2, with Connor Beasley aboard, and if you want to spread the risk, Bravo Hotel at 8/1 has placed in three of his last five completed starts. Simba’s Pride is the win bet, but Golden Havana is a live each-way alternative at the bigger price.

4:02 Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap (7f)

Selection: This Farh Each-Way (6/1, Boyle Sports / 5/1 Betfred)

Twelve runners, three places at a quarter the odds, and this is exactly the kind of race where you look for the horse in form rather than the name everyone recognises. This Farh has a recent sequence of 461414, which means he has finished first or fourth in all six recent starts. Two wins in the last six, two fourths that suggest he misses nothing by much when not winning. David Loughnane’s yard is running at 3/19 in the last 14 days, which is a decent strike rate for a smaller operation, and William Pyle rides. The 7f trip on good ground at Thirsk is workable and the handicapper has not yet punished the two recent wins too harshly given the trajectory of those form figures.

City Captain at 5/1 also deserves a mention. Harriet Bethell’s course record at Thirsk is 20% with an A/E of 1.19, meaning her runners here run above expectation. She is quiet over the last 14 days with 0 from 7, but course specialists have a habit of sparking back into life at their favoured track. Woodstock at 11/2 is consistent without setting the world on fire. This Farh is the pick at 5/1 each-way with Betfred for the places across 12 runners.

Today’s NAP

Counter Intuitive — British EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes (2:15, Thirsk)
Odds: 10/3 — Boyle Sports (others: 10/3 LiveScore Bet, 7/2 Betfred)

The George Downing and Ed Walker combination at Thirsk is the standout angle of the day. Downing wins 21% here with an A/E of 2.66, Walker converts 23% at the course, and Counter Intuitive stepping up to a mile and four furlongs on good ground looks a shrewd placement. In a five-runner novice, the market leaders are beatable at shorter odds and 10/3 about a horse with two trainer and jockey aces up her sleeve represents the clearest value on the card.