Thirsk, Wednesday 1 July: Tips & Analysis

Thirsk, Wednesday 1 July: Tips & Analysis

A mid-week card at Thirsk on good to firm ground, and the sun is doing its bit with partly cloudy skies keeping conditions consistent throughout the afternoon. Three races stand out for punters looking for a proper angle, and there is genuine value to be found if you dig past the obvious market leaders. England are battling India in the Test series today, but the real battles worth watching are unfolding on the North Yorkshire turf.

2:08 — British EBF Novice Stakes (1m, Good To Firm)

The big-priced runners here are 200/1 shots who have no realistic chance, so forget the bottom of the market and focus on where the form actually points. Lord d’Or at 4/7 (Boyle Sports, Betfred, LiveScore Bet) is the class act in this field. Andrew Balding is operating at 24% wins at Thirsk with an A/E of 1.0, which means the yard delivers here and the market respects it properly. Lord d’Or was beaten less than a length at York on just his second career start, in a novice over today’s exact trip on good ground. He tops the ratings in this field and the step forward from debut to run two was sharp. This is his race to lose.

The only one capable of giving him a race at a price worth noting is Steel Raven at 6/1 (Boyle Sports, Betfred). Trainer Adrian Paul Keatley has been in cracking form recently, and the gelding showed enough on debut at Carlisle to suggest there is more to come. Third on his intro over nine furlongs, he drops back to a mile on faster ground, which could sharpen him up. If Lord d’Or underperforms for any reason, this is where the money goes.

Selection: Lord d’Or at 4/7. Balding firing at this course, York form reads well, tops the figures. Odds-on but merited.

3:40 — Weatherbys Racing Bank Handicap (1m4f, Good To Firm)

Five runners, two places, and a race that looks like a straight battle between two well-bred colts with strong handler backing.

York Tower at 11/8 (Boyle Sports) is the play. William Haggas runs at 26% winners at Thirsk, one of the best strike rates you will find for any trainer at this track, and the yard has been operating at nearly 30% over the past fortnight. Tom Marquand is in the saddle, and while his overall Thirsk figures are modest, the quality of the Haggas ammunition matters more than jockey stats here. The horse himself finished fourth at Epsom on handicap debut, staying on late over ten furlongs in a way that screamed this extra quarter-mile would suit. He tops the figures in this field. The step to twelve furlongs on fast ground looks perfectly timed.

Temple at 15/8 (Boyle Sports, Betfred) pushes him all the way. Jane Chapple-Hyam has a strong A/E of 1.91 at Thirsk and her runner was only two lengths off the winner at Newmarket on handicap debut off a mark just 1lb higher than today. Harry Davies is a capable claimer and the form is solid. If the market is right and this is genuinely a two-horse race, Temple is the value of the two at a bigger price.

Selection: York Tower at 11/8. Haggas at his best Thirsk course, step up in trip suits, tops the figures, handler in form.

4:10 — Weatherbys Global Stallions App Handicap (6f, Good To Firm)

Eleven runners, three places, and a fiercely competitive six-furlong handicap where the market has thrown up a genuine puzzle. Two horses stand out.

Indian Run at 3/1 (Boyle Sports, Betfred) is the clear ratings pick. Julie Camacho has been running at 4 from 20 over the past fortnight, which is a solid recent strike rate, and the horse himself was beaten a neck at Windsor last time off a mark just 1lb lower than today. He returns to a trip he handles on ground that suits, and a neck defeat off a near-identical mark screams rematch candidate. Second in the figures, consistent, and Camacho’s horses are in form.

Strong Warrior Each-Way at 7/1 (Boyle Sports, Betfred) is the each-way play in this competitive handicap field. He tops the figures with the highest rating in the race and was third at Ripon on his turf return, beaten four lengths off a mark just 1lb above today. Proven at six furlongs on a sound surface, and a 3lb claimer in Warren Fentiman(3) takes off weight and keeps the handicapper honest. In a race of this size, the place terms make 7/1 each-way very attractive.

Novello Lad at 10/3 has come from back-to-back wins but the 4lb rise, Paul Midgley’s recent form, and questions about softer ground give me pause. He is not the value his market position suggests on good to firm.

Selection: Indian Run at 3/1 to win, with Strong Warrior as each-way backup at 7/1.

Today’s NAP

York Tower — Weatherbys Racing Bank Handicap (3:40, Thirsk)
Odds: 11/8 — Boyle Sports (others: 6/4 Betfred)

William Haggas hits 26% winners at Thirsk, one of the circuit’s outstanding trainer-course combinations, and the yard has been red-hot over the past fortnight. York Tower’s Epsom fourth on handicap debut told the story clearly: he stayed on late over ten furlongs and is crying out for this step up to twelve. He tops the figures in a five-runner field and the going is perfect. At 11/8 he is not a price to take home and frame, but in a small field with this level of confidence behind the selection, it is the strongest bet of the day.