Tottenham vs Leeds United Betting Tips 2026

Spurs Desperate, Leeds Dangerous

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium hosts what could be one of the more consequential Monday night fixtures of the Premier League season. Spurs sit 17th on 37 points under Roberto De Zerbi, and while that sounds grim, the home record is the real story here: W2 D5 L10 at their own ground this season. That’s a truly wretched return from a side with quality in the squad, and De Zerbi hasn’t cracked it yet. Leeds arrive under Daniel Farke, and whatever their league position reflects, you don’t just rock up at Spurs on a May Monday night without something to play for.

Tottenham’s away form has actually been decent: seven wins, five draws, six defeats on the road. It’s home where they’ve haemorrhaged points all season. That -9 goal difference tells you this squad leaks, and when you consider they’ve conceded seven goals across their last five outings, confidence at the back is clearly fragile.

Form and Firepower

Spurs’ recent run has been mixed. Back-to-back wins over Aston Villa (2-1 away) and Wolves (1-0 away) looked like a corner being turned, then they drew 2-2 at home to Brighton and lost 1-0 at Sunderland. Before all of that, Nottingham Forest put three past them without reply at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. So the last five shows two wins, a draw, and two defeats. Good enough to suggest life, not good enough to inspire total confidence.

Richarlison leads the scoring charts with 10 goals and 4 assists in 29 appearances, and he’s the focal point of whatever De Zerbi tries to build going forward. Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven have both chipped in with four goals apiece from defence, which shows Spurs do have threats from set pieces and runs. João Palhinha has four goals too. The squad isn’t devoid of quality, the system just hasn’t clicked consistently enough on home turf.

The problem for Monday is the injury list. Dominic Solanke is missing, Yves Bissouma is out, and Destiny Udogie is also unavailable. Losing Bissouma in midfield hurts the engine room. Losing Udogie removes one of their better attacking outlets from left wing-back. And Solanke, despite only three goals this season in 15 appearances, offers a physical presence up top that Spurs don’t always have alternatives for. Three confirmed absentees changes De Zerbi’s options meaningfully.

Leeds have no confirmed injury concerns heading into this, with Farke seemingly able to pick close to a full squad. Reports suggest Brenden Aaronson is in line to start, with a 3-4-2-1 formation looking likely for the visitors.

The Betting Angle

Tottenham at 1.86 to win this at home looks like the market giving them credit they haven’t entirely earned on their own turf this season. Two home wins all season in the league is a damning record. Leeds at 4.5 is a price that starts to make sense when you factor in Spurs’ injury issues, their defensive fragility, and that wretched home record.

The goals market is worth a look too. Four of Spurs’ last five have gone over 2.5 goals, and even when they win or draw, they seem to concede. At 1.75 for Over 2.5, that’s not a screaming price, but the logic is sound for a side that’s shipped seven in five games.

My lean is toward Leeds at 4.5. Farke’s side will come organised, Spurs are banged up, and De Zerbi still hasn’t solved the home hoodoo. A full-strength Leeds versus a Spurs missing Bissouma, Udogie and Solanke? That’s not the layup the 1.86 suggests. Farke sides tend to be well-drilled and hard to break down, and Spurs have already shown they can capitulate at home this season, three against Forest being the most recent evidence.

If you want to back the home side, you’d want a lot more conviction in their defensive setup than they’ve shown. At this price, Leeds represent genuine value.