Tottenham vs Leeds United Betting Tips 2026

Spurs Need This, But Can They Deliver?

Tottenham vs Leeds, Monday night football, and Roberto De Zerbi's side sitting 17th in the Premier League with 37 points. That's the reality of where Spurs are right now. A home game against a newly promoted side should feel like a lifeline, and in some ways it is, but the form table doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

Three wins from their last five across all competitions looks reasonable on paper. Look closer and it's two away wins against Aston Villa and Wolves bookended by a home draw with Brighton, a loss at Sunderland, and a 3-0 hammering at home to Nottingham Forest. The home record this season reads W2 D5 L10, which is genuinely alarming for a club of Tottenham's standing. Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has been anything but a fortress in 2025/26.

Richarlison leads the attacking line with 10 goals and 4 assists in 29 appearances this season. He's the one opponent defences need to account for, and if he's sharp on Monday he could be the difference. Cristian Romero and Mats van de Ven have both chipped in with 4 goals apiece from centre-back, which shows De Zerbi's side can be a threat from set-pieces even if open-play creativity has been patchy.

Injuries, Absentees and Team News

De Zerbi has some real problems to manage. Dominic Solanke is missing, Yves Bissouma is out, and Destiny Udogie is also unavailable. Solanke's absence hurts given the squad's limited attacking depth. Bissouma in midfield is a significant loss too, he provides defensive cover that allows the back four to push higher. Losing both Bissouma and Udogie on the same side of the pitch creates a structural problem De Zerbi will need to work around.

There's also noise around Xavi Simons undergoing surgery and reports that at least one Spurs player considered untouchable earlier this season is now being linked with a Champions League exit. It's not exactly the settled, focused environment you want heading into a relegation-zone crunch match.

Leeds have no confirmed injury concerns heading into this one, with Daniel Farke able to name a full squad as far as we know.

The Betting Angle

Leeds' standings aren't published here, but they're a Premier League side in May with a functioning manager who knows the English game inside out. Farke got Leeds promoted before and he's had a full season to build a squad capable of competing. The fact that Spurs are priced at 1.92 to win at home tells you the market respects that Leeds are a genuine threat.

The issue for Spurs is the home form. Two wins at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium all season is a damning stat. The away record, W7 D5 L6, is dramatically better, suggesting De Zerbi's team set up differently on the road and benefit from more space. At home, against a disciplined Farke side who will be hard to break down, the 3-0 against Forest at this ground is very much alive in the memory.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.81 is tempting given Spurs' attacking quality when they're on it, but the home defensive record and Leeds' likely pragmatism makes me cautious about backing a high-scoring game. Under 2.5 at 2.20 has genuine appeal if you think Farke sets up to frustrate.

For me though, the value is on Leeds to nick a result. At 4.2, you're getting a price that reflects a clear underdog, but this is a Spurs side who've won two home league games all season, missing key personnel, low on confidence, and carrying real defensive vulnerabilities down the left with Udogie out. Leeds won't come to sit off. Farke always wants his teams to play, and with a clean bill of health, they have the tools to hurt a shaky home side.