U.S. Open Betting Tips | June 2026

Major

The U.S. Open returns to Shinnecock Hills this June, a venue that asks questions most players cannot answer. This New York beast plays to a par 70, and its brutal rough and firm, undulating greens make precision non-negotiable. The defending champion is J.J. Spaun, who claimed the 2025 title, but at Shinnecock, history matters less than ball-striking under pressure. This is a major championship where strokes-gained data tells you everything you need to know.

Outright Favourites

Tommy Fleetwood heads the market at 5.5/1 with bet365, and on the surface, that looks fair for an elite ball-striker. But our analysis gives him a 7.3% win probability, which implies fair value around 13/1. The bookies have overreacted to his recent form, and at this price, he’s no bet. Fleetwood will be solid, yes, but Shinnecock demands more than solid. He’s a make-cut banker at 84%, but value hunters should look elsewhere.

Wyndham Clark is available at 6.5/1 with Betway, Betcris, and BetMGM. Again, the market is pricing him far shorter than the data supports. We have Clark at just 3.4% to win, which works out around 29/1 implied. This is a classic case of reputation pricing over probability. He’ll make the weekend (75% cut likelihood), but at these odds, he’s nowhere near a sensible play.

Sam Burns at 12/1 with bet365 sits third in the market, and while he’s not screaming value, the number is closer to reality. Our ratings give him a 4.8% chance, roughly 20/1 implied, so there’s still a margin against the punter here. Burns has a 29% top-10 probability and a 79% chance of making the cut. Solid credentials, but not enough to justify an outright bet at this track.

Each-Way Value

Matt Fitzpatrick Each-Way is the standout each-way play at 22/1 with bet365 (25/1 Bovada, 24.31/1 Pinnacle). BonusDevil’s ratings give him a 5.9% win probability, which implies fair odds around 16/1. That makes 22/1 extremely generous, and with 1/4 odds paying five places, this is a bet that writes itself. Fitzpatrick has a 34% chance of a top-10 finish and an 83% likelihood of making the cut. Shinnecock is built for his game: tight fairways reward accuracy, and the firm conditions suit a player who controls his irons with surgical precision. At this price, the each-way angle is gold.

Robert MacIntyre Each-Way offers real interest at 35/1 with bet365 (41.06/1 Pinnacle, 40/1 BetOnline). We have the Scot at 2.5% to win, which implies around 39/1, so you’re getting a slight overlay here. More importantly, his 20% top-10 probability and 74% cut chance make the each-way bet attractive on a brutal course like this. MacIntyre thrives when conditions get nasty and ball-striking separates the field. At 35/1, you’re getting paid to back a player who could easily sneak into the places if his irons are dialled in.

Collin Morikawa Each-Way is absurdly priced at 175/1 with bet365 (250/1 Bovada, 219.67/1 Pinnacle). Our model gives him a 3.0% win probability, which implies fair odds around 32/1. The bookmakers have lost the plot here. Morikawa has a 23% chance of a top-10 finish and a 75% likelihood of making the weekend. At 175/1, you’re getting value on the win bet alone, never mind the each-way cushion. This is a gift from the market, plain and simple.

Players to Watch

J.J. Spaun returns as defending champion and will carry that confidence into the week. Shinnecock rewards those who’ve handled it before, and Spaun proved last year he has the game for U.S. Open conditions.

Kristoffer Reitan is priced anywhere from 2500/1 (Caesars) to 5000/1 (bet365, DraftKings), yet our ratings give him a 3.4% win probability, which implies around 28/1. The market has no idea how to price him, and while we’re not recommending an outright bet, he’s worth monitoring as a potential surprise package.

Justin Rose is always a factor at major championships, especially on courses that demand experience and composure. Our model has him at 2.9% (around 33/1 implied), and if the bookies post a price north of 40/1, he becomes a serious each-way consideration.

Our Pick