PGA Tour
The final countdown to Augusta begins in San Antonio this week, where TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course hosts the Valero Texas Open — and with it, the last ticket to the Masters. The winner here boards the plane to Georgia on Thursday, claiming the final invitation to the year's first major. That narrative alone lifts this event above typical pre-major fare, but add a strong European contingent, several former Masters champions tuning up their games, and a course that rewards ball-striking precision over bombers, and you've got genuine betting interest beyond the obvious storyline.
The Oaks Course stretches to 7,435 yards but plays tighter than the yardage suggests. Accuracy off the tee matters more than distance, and approach play into tricky greens separates the field. Wind swirls through the property, particularly on the water-lined back nine, and scrambling becomes essential when iron shots drift. It's a proper test for those heading to Augusta, where similar demands await — though few courses truly replicate what the Georgia pines will ask of them next week.
Outright Favourites
Ludvig Aberg heads the market at 14.5/1 with DraftKings (16/1 BetOnline, 15/1 FanDuel), and the Swede's ball-striking profile fits this track perfectly. Our analysis gives him a 4.7% win chance — that's roughly 20/1 implied odds — so there's little value in the headline price, but his credentials for a pre-Masters tune-up are obvious. He ranks among the field leaders in strokes-gained metrics that matter here: accuracy and approach work. With a 78% make-cut probability and 27% chance of a top-ten finish, he's the safe play if you want the favourite. Just don't expect generous returns.
Tommy Fleetwood sits just behind at 16/1 with bet365 (17.32/1 Pinnacle, 16.5/1 Betcris), carrying a 4.4% win probability into the week. The Englishman's game travels well to precision-demanding layouts, and he's shown consistent form on Tour this season. At 22/1 implied from our ratings, the 16/1 available represents modest value — nothing spectacular, but fair odds for a player with an 80% cut-make rate and a 28% shot at cracking the top ten. Fleetwood won't overpower TPC San Antonio, but he won't need to. Steady iron play and a hot putter will do.
Robert MacIntyre completes the front three at 20/1 with BetMGM and BetOnline (21.97/1 Pinnacle), and the Scot brings a 4.2% win chance to Texas. We rate him at 23/1 implied, so again, the value isn't screaming, but his recent form and approach metrics suggest he'll be in the mix come Sunday. With a 79% likelihood of playing the weekend and a 27% top-ten probability, MacIntyre represents a solid if unspectacular play. His ball-striking has been sharp, and this course should suit his controlled, tidy game.
Each-Way Value
Russell Henley at 17.72/1 with Pinnacle (18/1 BetOnline, 18/1 Bovada) Each-Way offers the kind of each-way cushion we like. BonusDevil's ratings put him at a 4.0% win chance — around 24/1 implied — which makes 17.72/1 a fair price, but not standout value outright. Where Henley shines is in consistency: he carries a 79% make-cut probability and a 26% shot at the top ten. That each-way safety net at 1/5 odds over five places gives you breathing room. Henley's strokes-gained numbers in approach play are solid, and he rarely implodes. He's the steady accumulator type who sneaks into pay positions without fanfare.
Si Woo Kim at 22/1 with FanDuel and Bovada (22.23/1 Pinnacle) Each-Way presents a different profile — higher variance but with genuine upside. We have him at 3.9% to win, implying 24/1, so the market price is slightly short of true value. Still, at 22/1 each-way, Kim offers appeal for those who like a player capable of hot streaks. He's posted a 79% cut probability and 26% top-ten chance, matching Henley's consistency metrics while bringing more explosive potential. Kim's game can go sideways quickly, but when he's dialled in, he's a handful. The each-way terms cushion the downside.
Keith Mitchell at 33/1 with BetMGM (34/1 DraftKings, 35.02/1 Pinnacle) Each-Way is where the genuine each-way value lies this week. Our analysis rates him at a 2.3% win chance — roughly 43/1 implied odds — which makes 33/1 a generous price. His 71% make-cut probability is lower than the shorter-priced names, but his 17% top-ten chance keeps him in the each-way conversation. Mitchell's strokes-gained profile suggests he can contend on ball-striking tracks, and if his putter cooperates, he's capable of a big week. At these odds with five-place each-way terms, he's worth a small stake.
Players to Watch
- Brian Harman — Defending champion. Returns to the scene of his 2025 triumph with a proven course fit. Watch for early momentum.
- Jordan Spieth — Available at 17.65/1 with Pinnacle (18/1 FanDuel, 18.5/1 DraftKings), the Texan knows TPC San Antonio well and will relish a final tune-up before Augusta. We rate him at 3.7% (26/1 implied), so the 17.65/1 price is slightly short, but Spieth in form is always dangerous.
- Hideki Matsuyama — The Japanese star at 25/1 with BetOnline and Bovada (25.32/1 Pinnacle) brings a 3.6% win chance and elite ball-striking numbers. At 27/1 implied, the market price is fair. He'll use this week to sharpen his iron play ahead of the Masters.
- Rickie Fowler — Priced at 30/1 across BetMGM, BetOnline, and Bovada, Fowler carries a 2.7% win probability (36/1 implied). The market is slightly generous here, but his recent form has been patchy. One to monitor rather than back blindly.
Our Pick
Odds: 33/1 — BetMGM (others: 34/1 DraftKings, 35.02/1 Pinnacle)
Our analysis gives Mitchell a 2.3% win chance — that's 43/1 implied odds — which makes 33/1 a genuinely generous price. His strokes-gained profile on approach and around the greens suits TPC San Antonio's demands, and with five-place each-way terms at 1/5 odds, you're covered if he sneaks into the top five. At these odds, he's the standout value play of the week.
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