Villarreal 
Celta Vigo Third Place on the Line at Estadio de la Cerรกmica
Villarreal host Celta Vigo on Sunday night sitting third in La Liga with 62 points, and a European push that is very much alive. Marcelino's side have been one of the stories of the 2025/26 season, but they arrive at this fixture carrying real fatigue after a 1-1 draw away at Oviedo just two days ago. Tired legs at this stage of the campaign can undo even the best-laid plans, and that is worth keeping front of mind when assessing how this one plays out.
Celta, managed by Claudio, sit seventh on 44 points. That sounds comfortable enough, but their recent form is genuinely alarming. Four defeats in five across all competitions, conceding 12 goals in the process. They were dumped out of the Europa League at the quarter-final stage, losing 0-3 away to SC Freiburg on 9 April and then 1-3 at home on 16 April. Those were bad nights, and you can see the psychological hangover bleeding into their league results. A 0-3 home loss to Oviedo just last week tells you everything about where Celta's head is at right now.
The Goals Are Flowing, But Celta Are Leaking Them
Villarreal's attack has real quality. Alberto Moleiro and G. Mikautadze have both hit 9 goals in the league this season, with Moleiro chipping in 4 assists and Mikautadze contributing 5. N. Pรฉpรฉ has 6 goals and 4 assists from 31 appearances. That is a front line with variety and depth, and they are playing at home, where they have won 12 and lost just 2 all season.
Celta's top scorer Borja Iglesias has 11 goals, which is a decent return, but the team around him is struggling badly. Their away defensive record has completely collapsed in recent weeks. Ferran Jutglร and Iago Aspas offer something going forward, but with Williot Swedberg ruled out for this fixture, Celta lose one of their creative outlets at exactly the wrong time.
Villarreal are also missing a few bodies. Ayoze Perez, Willy Kambwala, and Diego Conde are all unavailable. Losing Kambwala at the back is a minor concern, but at home against a Celta side this low on confidence, Marcelino has enough cover to manage. The squad depth has been one of Villarreal's quiet strengths all season.
Head-to-Head and the Betting Angle
These two sides have met four times in the last two seasons and it has consistently been eventful. Villarreal won 4-3 at home in August 2024 and 3-2 at home in December 2023. The 3-0 Celta win back in April 2025 was an outlier, and this season's reverse fixture ended 1-1 at Celta's ground in August. On home soil, Villarreal have generally had the edge.
The real question here is whether fatigue tilts this toward goals rather than a clean Villarreal win. Two days of recovery is not much, and Marcelino may rotate slightly, which opens up more space and could make this a scrappy, open affair. Over 2.5 goals at 1.81 has obvious appeal given the H2H history and Celta's current defensive shambles. Four of the last five meetings have produced three or more goals.
But the match result market is also worth serious consideration. Villarreal at 2.02 to win at home, against a Celta side who have lost four straight and conceded 12 in five, is a price I am happy to take. Celta's away defensive record has been poor all season, and right now they are a team running on empty after back-to-back Europa League hammerings. The fatigue factor cuts both ways, but Villarreal at least have the home crowd and a settled structure behind them.
My money goes on Villarreal to win this one. The form gap is too wide to ignore, the home record is outstanding, and Celta are in a real slump at exactly the wrong moment.
Odds: 2.02 โ Winamax (DE)
Villarreal's home record this season is formidable, and Celta arrive here having lost four of their last five, conceding 12 goals in the process. Even with some fatigue in Marcelino's squad after Tuesday's draw at Oviedo, the quality differential and Celta's collapsing confidence make the home win the play at 2.02.