Millwall League Table Context
This one is pretty much a mismatch on paper. Millwall sit fourth in the Championship with 72 points, firmly in the automatic promotion conversation, while West Brom are down in 20th with 45 points and a goal difference of -14. James Morrison's side are essentially playing out a difficult season, and Alex Neil's Millwall arrive at The Hawthorns knowing a win keeps the pressure on whoever is above them.
West Brom's home record reads W7 D8 L5, which is decent enough, but away from home Millwall have been outstanding: W10 D6 L4. They do not fall apart on their travels. That away form is the kind of consistency that gets you promoted, and it is a major factor in how you approach this fixture.
Form Guide
West Brom's last five is a mixed bag. Back-to-back wins against Bristol City away and Hull City at home gave Morrison's side some momentum, but they have since drawn at Blackburn and at home to Wrexham 2-2. Seven goals scored in those five games, three conceded. A. Heggebø leads the line with 9 goals and 3 assists in 40 appearances this season, and I. Price has chipped in with 7 goals too. There is something there going forward, even if the league position tells a rougher story.
Millwall's form is more uneven than their table position suggests. Two wins, two losses, one draw across the last five. They lost at home to both Norwich (1-2) and Blackburn (1-2), which is a concern. But the away win at Middlesbrough 2-1 is exactly the kind of result that reinforces trust in this side on the road. Six for and six against in five games. They can be got at.
Injuries
West Brom are without Josh Maja, Daryl Dike, and Tammer Bany, which is a real hit up front given how Morrison will need firepower. Millwall are missing Joe Bryan, Alfie Doughty, and W. Smallbone. Both squads are carrying absences, so neither side goes into this at full strength.
Head-to-Head
The recent H2H leans heavily Millwall's way. Last October at The Den, they won 3-0 against West Brom. Before that, a 1-1 draw at The Den in February 2025. The only meeting on West Brom's patch in this data ended 0-0, back in October 2024. Millwall have not lost to West Brom in any of the last five meetings. That is a relevant detail when handicapping a side that is also flying in the table.
The Betting Angle
The market has priced this oddly. West Brom at 2.36 to win at home is shorter than Millwall at 3.35 to win away, but Millwall's away record this season is W10 D6 L4 against a side sitting 20th. Home advantage counts for something, but not this much given the gulf between these clubs right now.
The draw at 3.4 is the most interesting price here. These two sides have drawn in three of the last five head-to-heads, and West Brom's last five contains three draws. Millwall's away form is not quite clinical enough to assume a comfortable win, especially with their home losses to mid-table sides fresh in mind. West Brom have enough at home to make life difficult, Heggebø and Price give them a threat, and a point would not be a disaster for either side in their respective situations.
With both squads carrying injury issues and Millwall prone to dropping points against sides who dig in, the draw has genuine value at 3.4.
Odds: 3.4 — Virgin Bet
Three of the last five H2H meetings have ended level, and West Brom's recent form includes three draws in five. Millwall have the quality but their back-to-back home defeats show they are not in ruthless form right now, and West Brom at The Hawthorns have enough to keep this tight. The 3.4 represents real value for a stalemate.