Wexford, Wednesday 27 May, Good To Yielding

Wexford, Wednesday 27 May, Good To Yielding

A sunny afternoon at Wexford with good to yielding underfoot, which suits athletic types who want the ball to come off the ground. The going is key here: plenty of these horses have been running on soft and heavy all winter, and the quicker surface will separate the genuine from those who have been flattered by testing conditions. Three races to focus on across an eight-race card.

5:12 Botanica International Rated Hurdle (2m1f)

Selection: Time Is A Thief (7/2, Boyle Sports/Betfred/LiveScore Bet)

Henry De Bromhead has been in decent nick over the past fortnight, saddling nine winners from 39 runners, and Darragh O’Keeffe goes to post with a respectable 15% course win rate at Wexford. The combination matters here because Time Is A Thief looks the most progressive horse in this field.

The form reads 2/F1 and the narrative behind it is encouraging. He went close in a point against the useful Pure Steel, fell at the last at Cork when still in contention on his hurdling debut, then bounced back with a front-running success at Tramore last month. Tramore is a sharp, testing track that rewards horses with confidence and pace. He has both. The move to good to yielding at Wexford should suit a horse whose point form suggested he handles better ground perfectly well.

The dangers are obvious. Colcannon carries a big reputation from the bumper scene, a Grade 2 winner who was third in the Punchestown Champion Bumper. But he raced too keenly and faded at the festival, and Noel Meade’s stable is only firing at 3/22 in the last fortnight. Moon Mission is the each-way alternative at 13/2 after winning on better ground at Cork this month, but Time Is A Thief at 7/2 with a yard that knows how to place horses looks the bet.

6:49 Discover Wexford Maiden Hurdle (2m4f, 14 runners)

Selection: Casual Water Each-Way (3/1, Boyle Sports/LiveScore Bet)

Paul Townend. W P Mullins. Wexford. The combination practically writes itself. Townend wins at 24% at this track from a sizeable sample, and while Mullins’ A/E of 0.82 here suggests he doesn’t always go in at short prices, the trainer clearly knows the venue well enough.

Casual Water is a half-brother to Altior, one of the greatest chasers of the modern era. That bloodline alone commands respect on better ground, and crucially, this horse has shown progressive form. He was tailed off on his debut in testing conditions over 3m at Limerick, failed at Sligo, then ran a promising third at Kilbeggan three days later on a shorter trip. The pattern points to a horse needing better going and a more reasonable trip, and today he gets both.

A 14-runner field at 3/1 is a fair price given the uncertainty around this horse’s ceiling, and with three places on offer at 1/5 odds, each-way makes sense in a wide-open maiden. Lumiere Du Large improved on her first start for Gordon Elliott and will be popular at 6/1, but the Mullins-Townend axis on a well-bred hurdler yet to show his best is the angle here.

7:19 Rosslare Strand Hurdle (3m, 5 runners)

Selection: Lemmy Caution (9/4, Boyle Sports/Betfred/LiveScore Bet)

At Evens, Dani Donadoni is not a horse to be taking on trust. His RPR of 146 is head and shoulders above the rest of the field, but he unseated at the first fence at Punchestown on handicap debut, and the Mullins yard has gone 5/23 in the last two weeks, hardly a yard that’s scorching hot at present. You’re being asked to trust a horse who hasn’t completed over hurdles since March, over 3m, on the back of a bad exit.

Lemmy Caution is the alternative at much more rewarding odds. A 250,000GBP purchase after an eight-length point win at Monksgrange, his bumper form was unspectacular but he has clearly taken to hurdles, winning a 3m maiden at Punchestown a fortnight ago on debut over timber. Gordon Elliott has 7 winners from 47 runners in the last 14 days, the yard is functioning, and the 3m trip is clearly his distance. The blinkers go on today for the first time, which is usually a positive first-time application for Elliott horses making a step up in company.

Rocky’s Howya comes here in form after a Clonmel win 13 days ago but faces a stiff ask at these weights, and the heavy ground form that fuelled his winning run is not on offer today. Lemmy Caution at 9/4 is the each-way nap, except the small field means win-only is the call.

Today’s NAP

Time Is A Thief — Botanica International Rated Hurdle (5:12, Wexford)
Odds: 7/2 — Boyle Sports (others: 7/2 Betfred, 7/2 LiveScore Bet)

Henry De Bromhead’s yard has been in solid form over the past fortnight, and Darragh O’Keeffe knows Wexford well. Time Is A Thief showed real improvement when winning at Tramore last month and the front-running style suits a track where forcing the pace on good to yielding ground pays dividends. Colcannon has a bigger reputation but the yard is cold and keenness is a question mark. This horse is on the upgrade and 7/2 is a fair price for a horse who could be better than his current mark suggests.