Wincanton – Wednesday 1 April 2026
Good ground at Wincanton on a midweek card that's light on runners but not short of interest. Three races worth focusing on, and the trainer stats tell a clear story before a ball is kicked — Emma Lavelle (7/17 in the last 14 days) is the form yard to follow, and Paul Nicholls sends runners who rarely waste a trip to his local course. Let's get into it.
2:20 — Bath & West Novices' Hurdle (2m5½f, Good)
Five runners, but this is essentially a match between Grand Vendetta (Harry Cobden, Paul Nicholls) and Sogna In Grande (Tom Bellamy). The market has it right in one sense — Grand Vendetta at 1/2 is a very short price — but the question is whether there's anything to be gained fighting the favourite here.
Grand Vendetta at 4/9 (Bet365) is the selection. Nicholls has sent him to Wincanton — his home track — with Harry Cobden in the saddle. The form reads 2-1, he holds an RPR of 125, and the trainer's yard has gone 4/24 in the last fortnight, which is ticking along. Good ground suits a horse of his profile and Cobden doesn't take the journey for a horse he doesn't fancy. At 4/9 this is not a betting heat, but if you're looking for a banker in an accumulator, this is it.
Sogna In Grande at 7/2 (Bet365/William Hill) is the alternative if you want a price. RPR of 122 on 21-1 form, won last time out, and the Kim Bailey/Mat Nicholls yard is at least showing a pulse (1/7 last 14 days). Tom Bellamy is a quality booking. The concern is that Good ground on this trip may just expose the gap between him and the favourite.
Selection: Grand Vendetta — 4/9 Bet365. Banker use only.
2:50 — Bridles Care Home Handicap Hurdle (2m5½f, Good)
Eight runners, a proper handicap, and the race that offers most value on the card. This is exactly where you go hunting for a price.
Muskoka — wait, that's the chase. Here, the angle is Geezer Rockstar Each-Way at 15/2 (Bet365/Betfred) for Harry Fry. The trainer has gone 3 from 8 in the last 14 days — that's a yard firing hard. Geezer Rockstar's recent form shows PP2-87, which at first glance looks ordinary, but dig in: he was placed last season and his RPR of 111 is competitive at the top of this field. The TS of 61 is the worry — suggests he hasn't hit top gear recently — but Fry doesn't run horses in handicaps unless they're primed. Bryan Carver takes the ride. Good ground is fine for him.
The market favourite Jukebox King (11/4, Coral/Boyle Sports) for Kim Bailey is respected — 1-444 form, RPR 112, Tom Bellamy in the plate — but three consecutive fourths tells you this horse is knocking on the door without quite opening it. That can go either way in a handicap, but at 11/4 you're not getting value for that uncertainty.
Matthias at 4/1 (Bet365/Coral) is the other each-way contender worth noting — Anthony Honeyball sends him down in form (42/355), and Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride. RPR of 108 is slightly below the top markers here, but he's only 163lbs and the weight advantage could tell over 2m5½f on Good ground.
Selection: Geezer Rockstar — 15/2 each-way, Bet365 or Betfred (3 places, 1/5 odds)
3:20 — Bridles New Luxury Care Home Handicap Chase (3m1f, Good)
Six declared, one non-runner (Ignore The Door — scratch that one out), leaving five to go. Three miles one furlong over fences on Good — a slog that will find out those who aren't genuine stayers.
Muskoka Each-Way at 3/1 (Bet365) or 11/4 (Coral) for Emma Lavelle is the standout. The Lavelle yard is red-hot — 7 winners from 17 runners in the last fortnight. That's not coincidence, that's a yard in a purple patch. Muskoka's recent form reads U4224P and yes, a pulled up and an unseated is in there, but his RPR of 125 matches the best in the field and his TS of 115 is the highest of any runner today in this race. Ben Jones takes the ride, which is a solid booking. Good ground at Wincanton over 3m1f suits a sound jumper, and at 3/1 with Lavelle in this form, this is where the value lives.
Golan Loop at 7/2 (William Hill) for Warren Greatrex is the main danger — James Bowen rides, form of -121P3 shows he can win at this level, and his RPR matches Muskoka at 124. Greatrex's yard is cold (1/13 in 14 days), though, which is a red flag. Hard to oppose on form, but the trainer data gives pause.
Broomfields Cave at 4/1 (Bet365/William Hill) — Neil Mulholland sends this 9yo with Bradley Harris (claiming 3lbs) on board. The form 21-31P includes a win at this sort of trip, and the yard has fired 3 from 26 recently, which isn't spectacular but they're placing winners. Worth a small saver each-way at 4/1.
Selection: Muskoka — 3/1 Bet365, each-way (2 places, 1/4 odds). Lavelle in-form, best TS in the race, right trip.
Today's NAP
Odds: 3/1 — Bet365 (others: 11/4 Coral, 7/2 William Hill)
Emma Lavelle is running at a blistering 41% strike rate over the last 14 days — you don't ignore a yard in that kind of form, especially when they send a horse with the highest speed figure (TS 115) in the race. Muskoka's run record has rough edges but his ceiling is clearly high enough for this grade, and 3m1f on Good ground at Wincanton is exactly the stamina test that suits him. At 3/1 with the in-form yard of the fortnight, this is the bet of the day.
Each-Way Recommended — 2 places at 1/4 odds