Yarmouth, Thursday 28 May: Tips and Best Bets

Yarmouth, Thursday 28 May: Tips and Best Bets

A sunny afternoon on the Norfolk coast with good to firm ground that should suit sharp, well-bred types throughout the card. Three races stand out for punters, and the going is ideal for the horses with the classiest pedigrees and the sharpest recent form. Yarmouth can be deceptive, though. The course rewards horses who travel well and quicken, not grinders, so keep that in mind when assessing anything returning from a long absence.

2:18 — Winning Experience With Moulton Racing Novice Stakes (1m3½f)

Two runners, one race, zero drama. Pierian (Tom Marquand, William Haggas) is a 1/20 shot and there is nothing to argue with. William Haggas fires at 21% at this track with an A/E of 0.99, and this filly is a different class to her opponent on the ratings. She progressed from a close second at Wetherby to a smooth win at Salisbury and steps up in trip to a distance her dam won at Group level. Spirit Dreamer has finished sixth and seventh in his two starts and the spotlight data makes clear that handicaps are where his future lies, not here.

Back Pierian to win, collect, and move on. Not a betting race at those odds.

2:48 — Download The At The Races App Handicap (7f)

Zubaru (Darragh Keenan, George Scott, 7/4 Boyle Sports/Betfred) is the standout play at the prices. George Scott’s yard has been red-hot over the last fortnight, registering five wins from just 16 runners. Zubaru himself is a horse building real momentum: he broke his maiden with authority at Doncaster on good to firm, then followed up under a penalty at Leicester 19 days ago. He is up another 4lb here, but the form line is progressive, he is lightly raced, and this good to firm ground mirrors exactly what he has thrived on. At 7/4 he is not a huge price but the angle is rock solid. He is the one they all have to beat.

If you want a each-way interest at a bigger price, Drifts Away Each-Way (Billy Loughnane, T J Kent, 10/1 Boyle Sports) is worth a small interest. TJ Kent’s Yarmouth record is eye-catching: 21% wins with an outstanding A/E of 1.89, meaning his runners here consistently outperform their odds. Drifts Away won this exact race last season and is feasibly treated on his best handicap mark. Nine months off is a concern, but Kent does not run horses cold, and Loughnane is a jockey who knows how to look after a returning horse. Three places at 1/5 in a nine-runner field makes the each-way case genuine at a double-figure price.

3:23 — British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (7f)

Al Hudaiba (Tom Marquand, Charlie Appleby, 4/5 Boyle Sports) is the selection and the logic is straightforward. Charlie Appleby runs at 30% at Yarmouth, the strongest trainer strike rate on the entire course stat sheet. Appleby has also sent out six winners from 19 runners over the last 14 days. Al Hudaiba won on debut at Newmarket despite looking green throughout, and the runner-up from that race was a horse sold for £880,000 at a breeze-up sale. That is serious form, however you dress it up. Good to firm at Yarmouth over seven furlongs is a natural step up for a horse who won over six on the same type of going. He carries a penalty but the talent level justifies it.

The most interesting market watch in the race is Shiyam (Rob Hornby, John and Thady Gosden, 3/1 LiveScore Bet). The Gosdens hit 25% at Yarmouth and this is a half-brother to an RPR-115 horse, with the added intrigue of being one of the first runners for Baaeed as a sire. Hornby posts a 16% course strike rate with an A/E of 1.19. If Shiyam shortens dramatically in the market, he is worth a small each-way interest. For now, Appleby’s proven commodity gets the vote at the head of the market.

Today’s NAP

Zubaru — Download The At The Races App Handicap (2:48, Yarmouth)
Odds: 7/4 — Boyle Sports (others: 7/4 Betfred, 7/4 LiveScore Bet)

George Scott’s yard is in the form of its life right now, winning five of its last 16 runners across all tracks. Zubaru is a horse with momentum behind him, two wins on the bounce on his favoured good to firm ground, and a profile that suggests the handicapper has not yet caught him out. The 4lb rise is manageable for a horse still on a steep upward curve, and at 7/4 in a nine-runner handicap there is genuine value on the short side. This is the nap of the card with confidence.